1
New CEO at three of 13 top companies by April 1 2025
6
closes 2025
45%
chance

There will be a new CEO in place in at least three of these companies by April 1 2025.

• Microsoft

• Amazon

• IBM

• NVidia

• Tesla

• Netflix

• Snapchat

• Uber

• Airbnb

• Dropbox

Announcements of future changes don't count. The new CEO needs to have taken on the role by the due date.

Sort by:
Noa Nabeshimabought Ṁ55 of NO
``````import numpy as np

probs_for_one_year = np.array([5, 10, 9, 14, 8, 4, 6, 8, 15, 4, 4, 7 ])/100
in_next_two_years = probs_for_one_year+((1-probs_for_one_year)*probs_for_one_year)

res = []
for _ in range(300000):
sample = (np.random.random(in_next_two_years.shape) < in_next_two_years).sum() >= 3
res.append(sample)
np.mean(res)``````
Noa Nabeshimais predicting NO at 28%

Returns .26

Noa Nabeshimabought Ṁ20 of YES

After some thought updated probs to
[4, 15, 8, 20, 12, 6, 20, 15, 15, 6, 6, 12]

@NoaNabeshima this is kind of like a Fermi calculation. Maybe could be improved by evaluating distributions rather than point values?

Related markets

New CEO at five of 13 top companies by April 1 202513%
New CEO at two of 13 top companies by April 1 202574%
New CEO at four of 13 top companies by April 1 202518%
New CEO at one of 13 top companies by April 1 202590%
Which of these CEOs will leave their office first?
Who will be the next CEO of Alphabet, after Sundar Pichai?
David Holz no longer day to day CEO at Midjourney before Mar 202860%
Will Jamie Dimon announce a successor as CEO of JPMorgan in 2023?32%
Midjourney out of business or is bought by another company by Feb 1 202651%
Who will be the next Microsoft CEO after Satya Nadella?
Who will be the next CEO of Netflix, after Reed Hastings?
Major Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary becomes independent corporation before 20278%
Will Sundar Pichai stop being CEO by the end of September?19%
Who will be next permanent CEA executive director?
Who will succeed LVMH?
Will Jack Ma found another company?42%
Will any founder leave?8%
Gaat Esther-Mirjam Sent opstappen nav het rapport over Gijs van Dijk40%