9
31
Ṁ199Ṁ190
2025
41%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
There will be a new CEO in place in at least three of these companies by April 1 2025.
Facebook (Meta)
Google (Alphabet)
Microsoft
Amazon
IBM
NVidia
Tesla
Netflix
Snapchat
Uber
Airbnb
Dropbox
LinkedIn
Announcements of future changes don't count. The new CEO needs to have taken on the role by the due date.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
import numpy as np
probs_for_one_year = np.array([5, 10, 9, 14, 8, 4, 6, 8, 15, 4, 4, 7 ])/100
in_next_two_years = probs_for_one_year+((1-probs_for_one_year)*probs_for_one_year)
res = []
for _ in range(300000):
sample = (np.random.random(in_next_two_years.shape) < in_next_two_years).sum() >= 3
res.append(sample)
np.mean(res)
@NoaNabeshima this is kind of like a Fermi calculation. Maybe could be improved by evaluating distributions rather than point values?
Related questions
New CEO at two of 13 top companies by April 1 2025
74% chance
Will there be an AI CEO by 2040?
67% chance
CEO Tontine - which two of these remaining 19 CEOs will be out first?
Which CEOs will leave their jobs?
Google has a new CEO by?
New CEO at four of 13 top companies by April 1 2025
16% chance
5) A number of Fortune 500 companies will create a new C-suite position: Chief AI Officer.
76% chance
New CEO at five of 13 top companies by April 1 2025
10% chance
Who will be the CEO of Google at the end of 2024?
Who will be the next CEO of Apple?