Which CEOs will leave their jobs?
17
232
1.2k
2031
24%
@JamesGrugett - Manifold Markets - 2024
26%
@JamesGrugett - Manifold Markets - 2025
10%
Andrew R. Jassy - Amazon - 2024
14%
Elon Musk - Tesla - 2024
14%
Elon Musk - Tesla - 2025
25%
Linda Yaccarino - X/Twitter - 2024
50%
Linda Yaccarino - X/Twitter - 2025
12%
Mark Zuckerberg - META - 2024
9%
Mark Zuckerberg - META - 2025
14%
Warren Buffett - Berkshire Hathaway - 2024
30%
Warren Buffett - Berkshire Hathaway - 2025

Use A-Z sort for this market!

Add CEOs to the list in the format "Name - Company - Year". If there's an existing entry and you want a later year, please copy it.

  • Each answer with that name resolves YES if they quit their jobs; NO if the end of the year is reached with them remaining CEO.

    • Example: Mark Zuckerberg is CEO January 1, 2025 will resolve "Mark Zuckerberg - META - 2024" NO.

    • Example: Mark Zuckerberg quits on December 31, 2023 but rejoins January 2, 2024. Then his 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 answers would all resolve YES from that small employment gap.

  • Answers must be currently CEO or announced to be CEO as of a certain soon date.

  • Options will be NA'd if they break the A-Z sort by not exactly matching the previous entry.

  • NA if the year is later than 3 years or later into the future, since we have a 100 answers limit.

  • I will ask admins to increase the active answer limit or add answer groupings if it becomes an issue, since I would like to see the CEO firing curve all in one place.

  • If the company is dissolved, resolves YES.

  • If the company merges or is acquired, resolves YES if the person is no longer CEO of a new company(even if it's a subsidiary). Otherwise, answer is edited to refer to the new company.

  • If a company changes its name, answer is edited to refer to the new name but stays unresolved.

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I've closed this for new answers since I don't want to maintain it. I'm tempted to NA it, but I'll leave it open for admins since it's reasonably well-specified.

I will resolve 2024 answers, but any later 2025 ones are the responsibility of moderators/admins.

Andrew R. Jassy - Amazon - 2024

@josharian Jeff Bezos is not actually the CEO of Amazon. Andrew Jassy is.

https://ir.aboutamazon.com/officers-and-directors/person-details/default.aspx?ItemId=7601ef7b-4732-44e2-84ef-2cccb54ac11a

So I've edited this option to Andrew Jassy.

bought Ṁ35 of Andrew R. Jassy - Am... NO

@Mira Hahahaha thanks

@Mira lol

employees dont seem to respect him much compared to Bezos though

bought Ṁ10 of Linda Yaccarino - X/... NO

How does it resolve if the company goes bankrupt/closes/changes name/restructures/etc. ?

bought Ṁ10 of Warren Buffett - Ber... YES

@Gen I added those in. If they're the CEO of a new entity, answer stays unresolved. If they're no longer the CEO of even a subsidiary, then even if they still have a job it resolves YES.

bought Ṁ10 of Linda Yaccarino - X/... YES

@Gen Feature request: A-Z sort doesn't show the answers by default. For a market like this, I think a default view of "Top 10-15 filtered by highest probability sorted by A-Z" would be most useful. But also A-Z should show at least some answers without needing to expand them.

@Mira Thanks! I have submitted the A-Z hiding answers as a bug report

I also added:

Also a way more specific and probably more annoying thing to implement, but when someone is tagged "@James" it would be cool if it ignored the @ and sorted "@James" to "J" instead of first

and I added your comment about top10-15 filtered by higher prob sorted by A-Z.

@Mira Also from your description

Use A-Z sort for this market!

When you set the A-Z as default, it set it for everyone 😃 - only creators/mods/admins can update it