Midjourney can create correct text in images by 12/1/2023
➕
Plus
103
Ṁ32k
resolved Dec 2
Resolved
NO

On 12/1/2023 I will use the best available paid model of midjourney (top paid or best plan available under $100/month) to run this prompt 5 times "a picture of a large overgrown concrete building with a large neon sign that says Pizza on top"

This will produce 20 images (5 mosaics of 4)

If the word Pizza is spelled correctly in at least 10/20 of the resulting images, the claim resolves YES. If not, it's NO. If the claim is tested successfully before this final test, it can immediately resolve YES, but I won't test it more than once per day.

Below is a sample of the images for that prompt today, 3/16/2023

Only the lower right image from the last of the 5 would count, so in total today's score would be 1/20.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
predicted YES

resolves NO

This market history is a good example of the AI bias on Manifold IMO.

predicted NO

@SneakySly agreed

predicted YES

@SneakySly Why's that? Other AIs can do this well, this market was not about some capabilities gain, it was about a particular product's version update

predicted NO

@SneakySly I chose the due date based on vague estimates of dev time after listening to midjourney office hours combined with experience waiting for deepfloyd, another text generating AI system.

So this is more of a "software is slow and hard to develop" thing, especially for a company which doesn't value it much and is growing hugely in other ways, so priorities change. David Holz likes text but doesn't view it as a killer app so isn't publicly rushing it in reports.

predicted YES

@Ernie Exactly. Image generation AI that does text well was around 6+ months ago, the most popular interfaces like midjourney's or DALLE's aren't even the best in the game. This is about a software release, not at all about some capabilities leap.

predicted NO

@firstuserhere agree mostly, but what's better than dalle3 rt now? It's amazing. Their rate limits hobble it to death. If it had MJ style availability it'd completely dominate

predicted NO

/Ernie/when-will-midjourney-first-be-able

This is the permanent market for this.

Retested this. It looks like the score is still 1/20 for me.

I'd be willing to bet that some model works out how to hook in the necessary bits to lean on some text LLM model for this, but I'm not sure I think Midjourney specifically is going to figure this out.

predicted YES

MJ has been promising this for a while but it still seems a bit unclear when new versions will actually come out... There haven't been any training or testing options I've seen...

bought Ṁ100 NO from 39% to 36%
predicted YES

Interestingly, dalle-3 with this exact prompt is fine, but if you allow it to modify the prompt it sometimes gets it wrong:

picture of a large overgrown concrete building with a large neon sign that says Pizza on top:

A large, overgrown concrete building, depicting signs of age and abandonment. Nature has started to reclaim the structure, with vines and plants growing over its surface. On top of the building, there's a large, brightly lit neon sign that reads 'Pizza'. The sign should stand out, glowing vividly against the building's worn facade. The setting is somewhat eerie, highlighting the contrast between the decaying building and the vibrant neon sign.

In today's midjourney office hours David directly said they already have it working locally and are discussing whether to include it or not in the next version. The open question is whether it doesn't do it accidentally or in undesired ways, or interferes with the style.

predicted NO

Pretty big price jump lately. Has there been any news? I've missed the recent office hours

@StrayClimb seems more like one person bought the market down and the subsequent jump is others buying it back to the original %

predicted NO

Wow, the tech completely works. This is unbelievable.

predicted NO

Hmm, the tech seems to be coming along and this may be technically possible for at least some people right now. https://twitter.com/DrJimFan/status/1694358069638275463

The technology exists https://www.deepfloyd.ai/deepfloyd-if and could in theory be integrated into midjourney tomorrow, but I have no idea how high this is on the teams list of priorities

What if the sign literally says "Pizza on top", but is otherwise correct?

@fukumomo I'd count that

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules