Google's take rate for apps making >1mm usd/year is 30% of revenue.
EDIT: previous title was "Google Play Store default rate for large apps <29% by 2030"
https://support.google.com/googleplay/android-developer/answer/112622?hl=en
If that number for US apps goes below 29% before March 1, 2030, then this market resolves true.
If the market structure changes so this interpretation isn't easy, we will use the effective take rate on the last dollar for the top 5 paid US apps at the time.
EDIT: The overall point is if the google play store 30% default fee monopoly is broken. There are lots of special deals, discounts, etc but the core rate is still 30% and that breaking clearly is what this is about.
believe this is already the case since recurring revenue subscriptions get charged less than 30%:
https://techcrunch.com/2021/10/21/google-lowers-play-store-fees-to-15-on-subscriptions-apps-as-low-as-10-for-media-apps/
@PatMyron I read that page as saying the marginal rate for normal revenue is 30%. Subscriptions are a special case. I do want to make that clearer. I'm looking for the last dollar take rate, for a huge app, normal revenue.