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MANIFOLD
Will Manifold have 5000 USD or more in revenue for July 31st?
9
Ṁ150Ṁ1.1k
resolved Aug 2
Resolved
NO

See stats (we'll know tomorrow)

We were recently debating if it hit 4k for the month, but between Manifest and Superconductors, the day has been wiiild

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I guess we won't get an official response, so resolving as expected

Resolves no:

predictedYES

@RobertCousineau I don't think that's right. I counted over 4k mana sold on July 31st as announced by the Stripe bot in Discord. The last point on the chart looks like 3k or less. I reckon that must be July 30th and the data for the 31st isn't there yet.

@chrisjbillington It says 2975 for the 31st on the stats page at the moment.

predictedYES

@NamesAreHard strange. Perhaps it's in UTC, I counted everything that was on Jul 31st Pacific time.

@chrisjbillington I would have expected it to be pacific time, too, and I'm not sure what the discrepancy between the stripe bot and this chart is about. gonna ping @JamesGrugett (not sure who knows this best) and delay resolution just to be sure

@chrisjbillington also closing the question for now to protect the people that are here. I'll reopen for a few hours if the expected resolution changes

predictedNO

@Stralor So you're not actually going to resolve this based on the reported amount on the stats page for that day? I did expect that to be the resolution source since it's the obvious one and is also linked in the description.

@NamesAreHard I will be basing it off of that! I'm simply giving the team a chance to figure out if there's a bug in the stats page

predictedNO

@Stralor That's fair, I did consider the risk that it might change :)

predictedNO

Perhaps worth comparing against Marcus' closed 5k for the month market. This one is for the day and it sure was a big day, but maybe this is out of proportion?

@Stralor $4180 in purchased mana on Jul 31st, if the Stripe Bot in discord is accurate. Four tickets to Manifest for the day gets it over the line, which, yeah, maybe I am overconfident about that.

predictedNO

@chrisjbillington ooo it's a close one then! good shout :)

predictedNO

@chrisjbillington I wonder if that revenue chart shows direct Manifest purchases. I'd kinda be surprised if it did tbh

predictedYES

@Stralor I don't know, but it's mentioned in the market description. Perhaps only because some people will buy mana to buy tickets instead of buying the tickets with dollars directly, increasing mana sales. If the revenue chart is only mana purchases, then I think this will resolve NO

predictedNO

@chrisjbillington yeah fair. I was thinking about all mana purchases and listed a couple likely culprits when I said that

predictedNO

@Stralor but you know, maybe it does show direct USD manifest tickets! no idea