I've noticed in our first season that many markets overshot their resolving condition, and some would have been better served by resolving early rather than late.
It seems to me, anecdotally, that leagues have been a big draw for engagement, but I suspect less committed users and users more focused on serious markets wont necessarily see it as an entirely positive influence. There's definitely room for stabilization.
If we're gonna see a bunch more of these kind of meta and playful markets, I could see benefits in a market closing option that syncs to the seasons with a similar "Ends sometime in the next 24h" signal.
Will Manifold create a feature like that?
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This is the longterm version of this market. Shorter:
By the end of June -> /Stralor/will-manifold-add-a-market-closing-2b6bdb889c03
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ36 | |
| 2 | Ṁ34 | |
| 3 | Ṁ27 | |
| 4 | Ṁ21 | |
| 5 | Ṁ20 |