Will anyone walk out of a talk in a huff at Manifest?
45
686
890
resolved Sep 26
Resolved
YES

There are some controversial figures slated to come, and we're not exactly a group that sees eye-to-eye on everything (that's the part of the point of this site, innit?). But will something be said that causes such a stir that at least one person gets up and walks out, visibly upset or dismissive? Or will polite society hold firm? Must be corroborated by at least two others, ideally more.

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I've decided to commit to resolving this YES. It's not a perfect fit, but I think it aligns with the spirit of the market better than NO.

bought Ṁ130 of YES
bought Ṁ80 of NO

Will you resolve NO if there is not the requisite amount of corroboration at close, or will you delay resolution for more evidence?

@Conflux I think I'd like to delay for more consensus, but I'm currently leaning towards resolving YES. It's unfortunately not clean cut, but at least it's worth traders knowing where my mind lies

predicted NO

@Stralor Eliezer was never in the talk, so you can't say that he walked out of it.

predicted NO

@AdamKalinich "at least one person gets up and walks out" --- Not clear that Eliezer was even sitting down, either, as the market states.

bought Ṁ220 of NO

@dittopoop :(( very unhelpful for resolution thaaanks eliezer

@Stralor Sounds like he was visibly upset or dismissive.

sold Ṁ12 of NO

@MartinRandall Yeah but his own words state that he doesn’t consider his actions as fulfilling the resolution criteria

@dittopoop The resolution criteria don't require that he does.

predicted NO

so now that Manifest is officially over, did anybody fulfill the market criteria?

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@dittopoop a source tells me that Eliezer walked out of Matt Barnett's talk in what may be described as a huff while saying emphatically "I've been saying this for 15 years"

predicted NO

@ArjunPanickssery can this actually be confirmed or corroborated by other people or by Eliezer himself?

If this did happen (not saying it didn't) and was confirmed by eye witnesses, wouldn't this market have already been bought to 99% and resolved?

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@dittopoop I can also confirm this, and have been buying up accordingly, but it’s not 99% as I don’t have enough to compete with acceleration and there are only a few people that know. Ideally Eliezer would confirm