Who are the most trustworthy Manifold users without the badge?
Basic
24
Ṁ1273
resolved Sep 1
60%24%
MayMeta ( @MayMeta )
30%12%
Wamba Ivanhoe ( @ShitakiIntaki )
10%9%
Pat Scott🩴(@Stralor)
5%
firstuserhere ( @firstuserhere )
3%
A ( @A )
3%
Simon Grayson ( @SimonGrayson )
2%
Fion ( @Fion )
1.4%
nickten ( @nickten )
6%
Joseph Noonan / Plasma Ballin' ( @JosephNoonan )
1.4%
NamesAreHard ( @NamesAreHard )
1.8%
Alex B. Goode ( @AlexbGoode )
1.4%
higherLEVELING ( @higherLEVELING )
1.4%
Scrooge McDuck ( @ScroogeMcDuck )
2%
CodeandSolder ( @CodeandSolder )
1.4%
TheWiggleMan ( @TheWiggleMan )
3%
2%
Dylan Slagh ( @DylanSlagh )
6%
SneakySly ( @SneakySly )

I've added some small nominations, but please add your own and make a case in the comments!

Can be based on anything you think is appropriate: question and resolution quality, ratings, calibration, positive vibes and interactions, github PRs, activity in the discord, gut feelings, etc., but you don't have to have a reason at all if you don't want to.

Resolves in one of two ways:

  • If any users are given the Trustworthy-ish badge in August, resolves equally to all of the users who get it within 24h of the first to do so

    • This 24h period cuts off at question close, in case the Admins knight folks shortly before and after the close threshold

  • Otherwise resolves after close to the top three valuations in this market via my Win/Place/Show spread

    • 1st (Win) resolves to 60%

    • 2nd (Place) resolves to 30%

    • 3rd (Show) resolves to 10%

Self-noms are OK. If there are duplicates, this only resolves to the first answer submitted about that account, even if names or IDs change. If more badges are added, this only resolves to the first option when specifically about the Trustworthy-ish badge as it's known today.

Note about @SneakySly -

Sneaky got his badge changed back from verified to trustworthy-ish which I've decided doesn't count for the first path to resolution. If we reach the end of the month, Sneaky is still eligible for the Win/Place/Show resolution, however. See the comments below.

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Watching some of the recent votes in this market, and being observant for quite a while, we have been tempted into making a market on whether someone will be awarded a trustworthy.ish badge on their alt account as well as their main account.

P.S. We would not dismiss this market as a first thought but think carefully about what ifs.

Would appreciate it if you bolded your note about @SneakySly in the description.

I also feel like this edge case should have been ruled out before they got the badge back, since an option for them existed, and the criteria as described originally imply this would count.

Just noticed you mentioned it in a comment. Please put such things in the description.

@jskf ?! it's in the description! I'll bold it for you but I'm not sure what's missing and unclear

Actually I'm not sure what percentage sneaky gets resolved to

Like I know he's eligible but what does that actually mean

@Joshua 60, 30, 10, or 0 based on rank in the market if we don't get newly badged users this month.

Ohhh interesting.

hmm I see that @SneakySly got added. Sneaky had the badge and now had it replaced with famous-person-verification. any thoughts on how that should change the outcome here?

Good question TBH.

@SneakySly OK, here's where I stand. I don't think you qualify for triggering or sharing in resolution if you get the badge now, since it's not as if you were de-badged but just had your badge changed. But I get that people might still want to vote for you if this doesn't trigger by badging, so I'm fine if you are in the Win Place Show rankings. Objections from other traders? I'm opening to being convinced against either of these decisions if you can do so.

@Stralor I will say I'm hesitant to allow either since it may cause an influx of re-badged people, which feels like it goes against the spirit of the question. Still, it is what it is and none of us could anticipate the verification badge so I'm game to be flexible like this

@Stralor btw I have received the badge again. 👍

Your confidence is much appreciated.

@jskf 😂 I did it for most of the options. the list is so long!

@Stralor and if it helps soothe the aches, you should know I also hold shares:

OdoacreboughtṀ15 YES

@Odoacre 👍

aw shucks @Joshua, I appreciate the nomination.

I know I said self-noms are OK, but definitely didn't feel good about it as the author 😅

I don't see anything in the description about any percentage resolving to "Other". So that should be ~0% correct?

@DylanSlagh it can resolve to Other if somehow the admins grant the badge to someone not on this list AND no one adds them here. but bets on Other give you free shares in any new answers, so it's likely you want to bet there if you're not wholly satisfied with the current nominations

@Stralor and, of course, Other is just as valid an option for a Win/Place/Show resolution, though I assume even less likely

@Stralor I see. I wasn't aware that Other shares give you free shares for new answers. good to know!

man I miss TheWiggleMan. he won't win but what a trooper he was.

@Stralor also I'm sorry to @nickten who I neglected to add the emoji for

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