This is the central place for info for this hand. New questions will be posted here as we go.

This question resolves to the winner(s) equally at the end of the hand. Note that bets here don't determine the result of the game. Go to the current round's question for that.

Current Status

The River, 5 players left. No one pushed the minimum last time so the current minimum is 12 mana.

The Audience

Poor Audience got eliminated in the Deal (again)

9 of spades, 4 of hearts

Let's play a variation on poker! Like all the decent games of poker, this will be a lot about leveraging luck with strategy and mind games; a perfect match for a place about predictions imo.

We're playing a variation based on Texas Hold 'Em specially designed for working on Manifold over a series of markets, but everyone can participate and bet even if they're not given a hand.

Here's how it works:

1. Players who get a hand are welcome to share it, or team up, bluff, obfuscate, and misdirect, whether on the questions, over discord, or wherever they see fit. They're also welcome to bet for or against their opponents!

2. Once everyone has their hand, I'll make a general question about "who will win" that will track the status of the game, and then rapid (~1 day) questions for each of the four rounds of betting.

3. Each player must commit a certain amount of mana on YES on themselves each round to advance to the next stage, as indicated by the round's trading history, otherwise they fold. Their commitment is the net of YES mana spent minus NO mana spent on themselves. This minimum equals half the lowest buy-in position that got into the game. This hand, that starts at 3.

4. If any player commits double or more than the minimum in any round, the minimum is doubled in all future rounds. i.e.: if the minimum mana to play is 20 and one or more people commit 40+, all future rounds have a minimum of 40, unless they get doubled further.

5. The Audience Hand works exactly like personal hands, except it:

   • is publicly visible

   • doesn't have to buy in

   • must have twice the minimum, using bets from all bettors, to advance

6. The round questions resolve at the end of the game to the winner(s), equally.

7. If two or more players stick it out to the end I'll reveal their hands, announce the winner, and resolve all the remaining questions accordingly.

8. If for whatever reason every player folds at any stage, the win goes to the player who held the highest bet on themselves in the previous round.

9. This hand is the first in a short tournament series. There are several ways to score points in the tournament (even if you don't get a hand).

As you might have noticed, the rules of this special variant allow for mismatched bets by players, so feel free to jump in even if you're intimidated by a whale in the water! They can do their thing, profit by playing market dynamics, and you can still come out on top :) Admins and Manifold staff also have no inherent advantage, so don't be shy!

As I'll know all of the cards, I won't be betting or playing in the rounds, and I cannot be bribed to reveal other players' information or tilt in your favor. My house cut is simply the trader bonuses on any questions I make for this, though I'll accept tips for my role as dealer if you're so inclined.

Of course, side markets are welcome. Feel free to add them to the Manifold Plays Poker group and comment them here for shared visibility, and they'll count for the tournament!