Let's play a variation on poker! Like all the decent games of poker, this will be a lot about leveraging luck with strategy and mind games; a perfect match for a place about predictions imo.
THE FLOP
King of Spades, Ten of Diamonds, Three of Spades
We're playing a variation based on Texas Hold 'Em specially designed for working on Manifold over a series of markets, but everyone can participate and bet even if they're not given a hand. If y'all love it, we'll do more hands. Here's how it works:
Players are welcome to share their hands, or bluff, obfuscate, and misdirect, whether on the markets, over discord, or wherever they see fit. They're also welcome to bet on their opponents! (Such bets have no bearing on if their hand continues)
The 4 players in this round who have the highest YES positions (minimum 20) on themselves at close advance to the next round. Everyone else is considered "folded". This market will only resolve at the end of the game to the final winner, whenever that is determined.
If for whatever reason every player folds at any stage, the win goes to the player who held the highest YES self-position on the previous round (including buy-in, if it happens to be this round).
And as a bonus for this first trial run, I'm awarding 100 mana to the winner. Congrats to them!
As I know all of the cards, I won't be betting or playing, and I cannot be bribed to reveal other players' information or tilt in your favor. My house cut is simply the (hopefully ample) trader bonuses on any markets I make for this, though I'll accept tips for my role as dealer if you're so inclined.
Of course, side markets are welcome. Feel free to add them to the Manifold Plays Poker group for visibility.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ74 | |
| 2 | Ṁ30 | |
| 3 | Ṁ22 |
As far as I can see, Fion bought just 2 Mana on herself 1 at 10% and 1 at 9%.. This looks to be a bare minimum to get payout of 20.
A bought 10 mana worth from 16% to 24% for a payout of roughly 50.
The next lowest is Kongo having spent 14 Mana for a payout of roughly 64
Simon Grayson also spent 14 but for a payout around 81
Christopher spent 24 mana for payout 112
Brubsby came in late with three 10 mana purchases for payout around 267.
I could be 2 or 3 out due to rounding but that does not look like it would matter, with a 14 gap where it matters. I could have missed some trades which might matter.
If I haven't made mistakes, looks like Fion and A are dropped.
@ChristopherRandles thanks for this! the thing that threw me was brubsby's self-NO for 80, but it looks like it's a cancel of the purchase right before it so your analysis looks pretty good. I'll wait an hour or two before I go with this to see if any conflicting info crops up
@brubsby Ha said I could be 2 or 3 out.
30 seemed large, showing confidence in your hand or just nervousness that everyone might put in purchases in the last few seconds?
@ChristopherRandles was on phone with "a few seconds remaining" so wasn't sure there wasn't a betting war going on
After a no-show by @ManualBlinking and a fast and hard fold by @Sinclair, we've got a solid set moving into the flop round. Only 4 will progress!
@SimonGrayson @A @ChristopherRandles @Fion @KongoLandwalker @brubsby
@Stralor (and thank goodness for the easy round advancements. the API is harder to parse for MC markets than I thought)