Which horses will Show (finish 1st, 2nd, or 3rd) in the first ever Manifold Derby?
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Ṁ8522resolved Mar 13
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YESGate #5 - TUMBLES FINANCIAL COMPLEX
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YESGate #6 - Aella's Fluffer
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YESGate #4 - LK-99
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NOGate #3 - Whalebait
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NOGate #2 - The Agency
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NOGate #1 - Out of Mana
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@Pykess @NFL @StopPunting
Whoever created the Manifold Derby tag should add it to these two markets as well:
https://manifold.markets/Pykess/which-horse-will-place-first-in-the
https://manifold.markets/NFL/which-horse-will-place-last-in-the
That way the leaderboard will track all of them!
https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=manifold-derby
My terrible model predicts:
Likelihood of each racer placing in 1st, 2nd, or 3rd:
Lane 1: 63.0000%
Lane 2: 1.3875%
Lane 3: 6.8000%
Lane 4: 82.4750%
Lane 5: 61.7500%
Lane 6: 84.5875%
Which means @Gen 's limit order of 25% on 2 is quite a deal! Get in while it is hot 🔥