2024-25 NFL Season - Week Eighteen
*** Asterisk Prop Clarifications
At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose
Favorite based on DraftKings closing line
Any Double Digit Underdog Wins
Based on closing DraftKings lines
A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury
If consensus the next week is that the player will be out for the season
Will lean towards "YES" (i.e. if the vibe is the player is 75/25 I will resolve YES)
Based on my subjective opinion (but feel free to give input)
Fake Punt Attempt
If a team lines up in punt formation and then snaps the ball with the intention to gain the first down instead of punting
Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game
The quarterback that started the game is removed due to neither an injury, nor due to a blowout
Subjective judgement will be used, but generally these fulfilling these three criteria will be required for 99% of cases
No Injury
If it is the 4th quarter then the game has to be within 16 points (2 possessions)
Its not clear that the QB removed from the game will start the next game
Any Double Digit Underdog Wins
Resolves NO if there are no Double Digit Underdogs
Fat Guy Touchdown
A player that would be considered fat scores a TD
All O-linemen, and DTs scoring would count (regardless of how)
Reserve the right for other positions if they are fat enough (if you want, ask me a player beforehand)
Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)
Resolves at 50% for ties, weighted (so if there are two games tied for the top already, and this week adds another, it would resolve at 33%)
A 4th and 11+ is converted
First downs as the result of penalties do not count
This logic applies similar to any other prop like this
"(no plays)" in the box score do not count as a play
Top 5 Super Bowl favorites
If there is a tie for 5th (or like 4-6th), this will resolve at 50%
In general, lines that use betting lines or props will rely on the DraftKings odds
Add your own props related to Week Eighteen (if it is super specific be prepared to help me find an answer). Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after Week Eighteen finishes, but not later than that.
Game Slate:
Byes: None
Add your own props related to Week Eighteen (if it is super specific be prepared to help me find an answer). Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after Week Eighteen finishes, but not later than that.
Other Week Props:
Also see:
Update 2025-05-01 (PST): - LA Teams and NY Teams are interpreted as teams from their respective cities (Los Angeles and New York City) only, not their entire states. (AI summary of creator comment)
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Can't find an update for jan 7th or 8th That shows any different than the -230 or -300.
Jan 9th-11th has been -450
Oddly enough, since the move to -450 on betting sites, the prediction sites have shifted to what the AP All Pro voted on.
jahmyr gibbs
drake london
quentin johnston
derrick henry
pat friermuth
marvin mims
Kyle Juszczyk
will dissly
Michael penix (RUSHING TD SO IT COUNTS)
not throwing, I should probably just generalize "scoring" TDs in all the answers like the NFL does, as the player that scores, since I clarify in other places if passes count
Texans drive against Titans towards the end of 3rd quarter
Didn't some team have a fumble recovery or fat guy interception TD? Or was it called back? Can't remember off the top of my head, but I think it happened in the 1pm window?
Big man TD! Derek Barnett scoops and scores for Texans
Defensive end Derek Barnett scoops up the loose ball and rumbles into the end zone for a Texans touchdown.
Apologies -- could this be N/A'ed, actually? I intended it as a joke but I've now realized it could affect leagues
@StopPunting https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/3044720/joshua-dobbs
Joshua Dobbs - two passing touchdowns, one rushing, two interceptions, one fumble
If I'm losing 2,000 mana, I'm losing 2,000 mana, but I think "NY teams" includes the Bills -- otherwise it would be "NYC teams"...
The counter-argument, before anyone says it: with NY referring to the state, LA should refer to the state too! Louisiana went 0-1 (0.000) this week with a Saints loss.
@Calibrate https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/nfl-week-five-prop-bets#ewn449brm1k trying to find if this came up before, this is the first thing I saw related
@Calibrate LA is a city, so imo NY should also be interpreted as a city -- it wouldn't be "NYC teams" because the city is named New York, not New York City
@PatrickMcCann yes, I'm surprised this hasn't come up (or as a Bills fan, I'm not commiting heresy), but this was NYC vs LA and has resolved as such all weeks before
@StopPunting Got it! (Made my own option, though, just for the heck of it.)
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What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?