NFL Week 18 - Prop Bets

5.4kṀ59k

resolved Jan 11

Resolved

YES

At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose

Resolved

YES

Punt or Kick Return Touchdown

Resolved

YES

Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes

Resolved

YES

AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

Resolved

YES

Any Double Digit Underdog Wins

Resolved

YES

Fake Punt

Resolved

YES

Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game

Resolved

YES

Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game

Resolved

YES

Josh Allen MVP Odds Improve By 1/8/25 (Currently: -300)

Resolved

YES

Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT

Resolved

YES

Any team scores 24+ points before halftime

Resolved

YES

A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)

Resolved

YES

Josh Allen MVP Odds Improve By 1/8/25 (Currently: -300)

Resolved

YES

Any team scores 40+ points

Resolved

YES

Pick Six

Resolved

YES

Fat Guy Touchdown*

Resolved

YES

A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)

Resolved

YES

Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)

Resolved

YES

At least one missed kicking extra point attempt

Resolved

YES

Will a championship belt change teams (https://shorturl.at/2bXlq) (https://shorturl.at/XwDBj)

2024-25 NFL Season - Week Eighteen

*** Asterisk Prop Clarifications

At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose
- Favorite based on DraftKings closing line
Any Double Digit Underdog Wins
- Based on closing DraftKings lines
A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury
- If consensus the next week is that the player will be out for the season
- Will lean towards "YES" (i.e. if the vibe is the player is 75/25 I will resolve YES)
- Based on my subjective opinion (but feel free to give input)
Fake Punt Attempt
- If a team lines up in punt formation and then snaps the ball with the intention to gain the first down instead of punting
Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game
- The quarterback that started the game is removed due to neither an injury, nor due to a blowout
- Subjective judgement will be used, but generally these fulfilling these three criteria will be required for 99% of cases
  - No Injury
  - If it is the 4th quarter then the game has to be within 16 points (2 possessions)
  - Its not clear that the QB removed from the game will start the next game
Any Double Digit Underdog Wins
- Resolves NO if there are no Double Digit Underdogs
Fat Guy Touchdown
- A player that would be considered fat scores a TD
- All O-linemen, and DTs scoring would count (regardless of how)
  - Reserve the right for other positions if they are fat enough (if you want, ask me a player beforehand)
Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)
- Resolves at 50% for ties, weighted (so if there are two games tied for the top already, and this week adds another, it would resolve at 33%)
A 4th and 11+ is converted
- First downs as the result of penalties do not count
- This logic applies similar to any other prop like this
  - "(no plays)" in the box score do not count as a play
Top 5 Super Bowl favorites
- If there is a tie for 5th (or like 4-6th), this will resolve at 50%
In general, lines that use betting lines or props will rely on the DraftKings odds

Add your own props related to Week Eighteen (if it is super specific be prepared to help me find an answer). Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after Week Eighteen finishes, but not later than that.

Game Slate:

Byes: None

Other Week Props:

/StopPunting/nfl-week-one-prop-bets

/StopPunting/nfl-week-two-prop-bets

/StopPunting/nfl-week-three-prop-bets

/StopPunting/nfl-week-four-prop-bets

/StopPunting/nfl-week-five-prop-bets

/StopPunting/nfl-week-six-prop-bets

/StopPunting/nfl-week-seven-prop-bets

/StopPunting/nfl-week-eight-prop-bets

/StopPunting/nfl-week-nine-prop-bets

/StopPunting/nfl-week-ten-prop-bets

/StopPunting/nfl-week-eleven-prop-bets

/StopPunting/nfl-week-twelve-prop-bets

/StopPunting/nfl-week-thirteen-prop-bets

/StopPunting/nfl-week-fourteen-prop-bets

/StopPunting/nfl-week-fifteen-prop-bets

/StopPunting/nfl-week-sixteen-prop-bets

/StopPunting/nfl-week-seventeen-prop-bets

/StopPunting/nfl-week-eighteen-prop-bets

Also see:

NFL Prop Bet Dashboard

Update 2025-05-01 (PST): - LA Teams and NY Teams are interpreted as teams from their respective cities (Los Angeles and New York City) only, not their entire states. (AI summary of creator comment)

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Can't find an update for jan 7th or 8th That shows any different than the -230 or -300.

Jan 9th-11th has been -450

Oddly enough, since the move to -450 on betting sites, the prediction sites have shifted to what the AP All Pro voted on.

@StopPunting

bought Ṁ900 YES

@StopPunting

jahmyr gibbs

drake london

quentin johnston

derrick henry

pat friermuth

marvin mims

Kyle Juszczyk

will dissly

Michael penix (RUSHING TD SO IT COUNTS)

bought Ṁ250 NO

@halo @creator Quentin Johnson did not score a touchdown. The letter Q is missing.

@s shoot.

bought Ṁ694 NO

https://stathead.com/football/play_finder.cgi?request=1&order_by_asc=0&order_by=yards&year_min=2024&no_play=N&week_num_min=18&week_num_max=18&type%5B%5D=2PC

1/8

bought Ṁ780 NO

https://stathead.com/football/play_finder.cgi?request=1&order_by_asc=0&order_by=yards&year_min=2024&no_play=N&week_num_min=18&week_num_max=18&down%5B%5D=4&yds_to_go_min=11&yds_to_go_max=50&type%5B%5D=PASS&type%5B%5D=RUSH

BTJ came close but no

@StopPunting do quarterbacks count here

not throwing, I should probably just generalize "scoring" TDs in all the answers like the NFL does, as the player that scores, since I clarify in other places if passes count

bought Ṁ929 YES

Texans drive against Titans towards the end of 3rd quarter

Didn't some team have a fumble recovery or fat guy interception TD? Or was it called back? Can't remember off the top of my head, but I think it happened in the 1pm window?

@StopPunting I know Ravens Michael Pierce had an INT but "slid" and did not score.

bought Ṁ30 YES

@StopPunting

Big man TD! Derek Barnett scoops and scores for Texans

Defensive end Derek Barnett scoops up the loose ball and rumbles into the end zone for a Texans touchdown.

thanks!

Duplicated by accident but will resolve both

bought Ṁ896 YES

Bo Nix

@StopPunting 52 returns, 174 kickoffs, 29.88%

Apologies -- could this be N/A'ed, actually? I intended it as a joke but I've now realized it could affect leagues

@Calibrate it was your cost to add it and would only affect you slightly so it's no big deal

bought Ṁ500 YES

@StopPunting https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/3044720/joshua-dobbs

Joshua Dobbs - two passing touchdowns, one rushing, two interceptions, one fumble

bought Ṁ734 NO

@StopPunting free money on no :)

1-1 each

bought Ṁ984 YES

If I'm losing 2,000 mana, I'm losing 2,000 mana, but I think "NY teams" includes the Bills -- otherwise it would be "NYC teams"...

The counter-argument, before anyone says it: with NY referring to the state, LA should refer to the state too! Louisiana went 0-1 (0.000) this week with a Saints loss.

@Calibrate https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/nfl-week-five-prop-bets#ewn449brm1k trying to find if this came up before, this is the first thing I saw related

NFL Week 5 - Prop Bets

@Calibrate LA is a city, so imo NY should also be interpreted as a city -- it wouldn't be "NYC teams" because the city is named New York, not New York City

@PatrickMcCann yes, I'm surprised this hasn't come up (or as a Bills fan, I'm not commiting heresy), but this was NYC vs LA and has resolved as such all weeks before

bought Ṁ894 YES

@StopPunting Got it! (Made my own option, though, just for the heck of it.)

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2024-25 NFL Season - Week Eighteen

*** Asterisk Prop Clarifications

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