Is average probability (upon resolution) of manifold.markets questions less than 50% for all questions settled in 2024

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## Related questions

## Related questions

One year from now, will the percentage that this question resolves YES (as shown by Manifold) be above 50%?

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This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

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8% chance

This market has a 1% probability of being resolved to YES on 2024 election day.

3% chance