Argentine Economy Minister Luis Caputo is currently in Washington, D.C., negotiating with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Treasury Undersecretary for International Affairs Jay Shambaugh. The talks focus on a potential currency swap or stabilization mechanism between the U.S. Treasury and Argentina’s Central Bank. The timing of this agreement could have major implications for Argentina’s midterm elections, influencing confidence in the peso and the Milei administration’s fiscal credibility.

Resolution criteria

• Resolve “Before” if an official U.S.–Argentina USD currency swap/“credit swap line” is finalized (i.e., agreement signed and publicly announced as executed/active) on or before October 26, 2025, 23:59 Buenos Aires time (UTC−3). Otherwise resolve “After.” Date is taken from the timestamp on the first qualifying official announcement. Valid sources: U.S. Treasury press releases, Federal Reserve press releases, or the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) press/official notices. If officials are silent, resolution may rely on two or more reputable outlets (e.g., Reuters/Bloomberg) clearly stating the agreement has been signed and is in force. Election date reference: October 26, 2025. (home.treasury.gov)

• Source pages to check at resolution: U.S. Treasury press releases; Federal Reserve press releases; BCRA press/official notices. (home.treasury.gov)

• If no such swap is finalized by April 30, 2026, resolve N/A. (home.treasury.gov)

Background

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the U.S. is negotiating a roughly $20B swap line with Argentina and that the U.S. is offering a swap line rather than “putting money into Argentina.” Milei and Trump were slated to meet in mid‑October amid these talks; Economy Minister Luis Caputo has been engaging U.S. counterparts. (reuters.com)

• Argentina’s 2025 midterm (legislative) elections are scheduled for Sunday, October 26, 2025, with no PASO primaries this cycle. (buenosairesherald.com)

Considerations

• Count only a swap/credit swap line between the U.S. government (Treasury or Federal Reserve) and Argentina/BCRA. Other instruments (IMF programs, repo facilities, guarantees, or China’s PBOC swap) do not qualify. (federalreserve.gov)

• If announcements differ by time zones, use the Buenos Aires local time of the first qualifying official release. (home.treasury.gov)