Meowdy! Argentina adopting the US Dollar by 2029? Hmmm, given their history of economic ups and downs, plus the political paw-sitions that favor flexibility over hard dollar adoption, I’d say the probability is a bit low, maybe around 25%. It’s a tricky dance, like chasing a laser pointer—tempting but not always achievable! So, I’m sticking close to the market’s cautious vibe. places 10 mana limit order on NO at 25% :3

@MiaCat

Will Argentina adopt the US Dollar by 2029?

Copilot

Argentina has been contemplating the possibility of adopting the US Dollar as its official currency. While this move is not yet confirmed, it’s essential to consider the context and implications.

Here are some key points:

President Javier Milei’s Proposal: President Milei has raised the prospect of dollarizing Argentina’s economy. If implemented, the Argentine mint would cease issuing the national currency, and the US dollar would become legal tender. This process is already a reality in countries like Panama, Ecuador, and El Salvador1.

Conditions for Dollarization:

Devaluation of the Peso: The peso has experienced significant devaluation, with a decrease in bank deposits and soaring inflation. A cheaper national currency could facilitate a transition to the dollar.

Comparison with Dollarized Countries:

Ecuador adopted the dollar around the turn of the millennium during an economic crisis with high inflation.

El Salvador made a similar decision to prevent devaluation risks.

Panama adopted the dollar in 1904, aligning itself with the US economy due to the construction of the Panama Canal1.

Inflation Comparison:

Argentina faces an average price index of 2,788, while dollarized countries have an index around 130. This stark difference highlights the potential impact of dollarization on inflation1.

Challenges and Considerations:

Monetary Control: Dollarization would mean ceding monetary control to the US Federal Reserve.

Productivity and Flexibility: Successful dollarization typically requires high levels of productivity, flexibility, and business dynamism to absorb shocks1.

In summary, while the conditions are evolving, the final decision remains uncertain.

Wow, he really is just like trump!

@TiredCliche The US was fully dollarized under Trump, yes

@mariopasquato It was one of his major accomplishments. :p

@TiredCliche LOL

Dollarisation plan is on hold:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-24/wall-street-cheers-as-milei-swaps-dollarization-for-macri-brass

Does Milei have the power to do this unilaterally as president? If not, what does his legislative support look like?

@BoltonBailey No unilateral power and the majority of the legislature is not from his party, but the main issue is that financing the switch, which his own economists price at $60 billion, would likely require dipping into Argentina's reserves which might not be feasible even with some political support

Seems way too low considering Milei will likely win

Tyler Cowen advocates!

Arb with these, seems illogical that the odds are so different:

https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-argentina-adopt-us-dollar-as-i

https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/will-argentina-dolarize-its-economy

Will Argentina adopt U.S dollar as its legal tender by 2030?

34% chance. --- ➡️ check my other Tomek's Specials! 😎

I'm not trading on my market, but the first market here looks like a near arb.

I would change my position if Milei wins. But at the moment I expect him to lose the runoff.

@AndrewHartman Yeah relevant market

@BoltonBailey Surprised it's that high, tbh. He's doing well, but I doubt he's gonna be the second choice for the many of the losers from the primary, y'know?

For context, from Bloomberg: "Milei “The Crazy” Wants To Dollarize Argentina As The Government Scrambles To Contain The Peso-Dollar Exchange Rate"