133
876
1.4k
2028
35%
chance
Pro-Dollarization Presidential Candidate Javier Milei Advances to Runoff
Milei wins Presidency

Resolves YES if at any point before the close date, the US dollar is Argentina's main legally-accepted currency.

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Will Argentina adopt the US Dollar by 2029?

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Argentina has been contemplating the possibility of adopting the US Dollar as its official currency. While this move is not yet confirmed, it’s essential to consider the context and implications.

Here are some key points:

President Javier Milei’s Proposal: President Milei has raised the prospect of dollarizing Argentina’s economy. If implemented, the Argentine mint would cease issuing the national currency, and the US dollar would become legal tender. This process is already a reality in countries like Panama, Ecuador, and El Salvador1.

Conditions for Dollarization:

Devaluation of the Peso: The peso has experienced significant devaluation, with a decrease in bank deposits and soaring inflation. A cheaper national currency could facilitate a transition to the dollar.

Comparison with Dollarized Countries:

Ecuador adopted the dollar around the turn of the millennium during an economic crisis with high inflation.

El Salvador made a similar decision to prevent devaluation risks.

Panama adopted the dollar in 1904, aligning itself with the US economy due to the construction of the Panama Canal1.

Inflation Comparison:

Argentina faces an average price index of 2,788, while dollarized countries have an index around 130. This stark difference highlights the potential impact of dollarization on inflation1.

Challenges and Considerations:

Monetary Control: Dollarization would mean ceding monetary control to the US Federal Reserve.

Productivity and Flexibility: Successful dollarization typically requires high levels of productivity, flexibility, and business dynamism to absorb shocks1.

In summary, while the conditions are evolving, the final decision remains uncertain.

predicts NO

Wow, he really is just like trump!

@TiredCliche The US was fully dollarized under Trump, yes

@mariopasquato It was one of his major accomplishments. :p

Does Milei have the power to do this unilaterally as president? If not, what does his legislative support look like?

sold Ṁ97 of YES

@BoltonBailey No unilateral power and the majority of the legislature is not from his party, but the main issue is that financing the switch, which his own economists price at $60 billion, would likely require dipping into Argentina's reserves which might not be feasible even with some political support

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Seems way too low considering Milei will likely win

I'm not trading on my market, but the first market here looks like a near arb.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

I would change my position if Milei wins. But at the moment I expect him to lose the runoff.

@AndrewHartman Yeah relevant market

predicts NO

@BoltonBailey Surprised it's that high, tbh. He's doing well, but I doubt he's gonna be the second choice for the many of the losers from the primary, y'know?

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