Will Argentina dollarize its economy before 2028?


The proposal to dolarize Argentina's economy has been brought to the forefront by presidential candidate Javier Milei. He argues that dolarization would end the country's inflation problem and proposes to demolish the Central Bank. However, economists and analysts have raised concerns about the feasibility, potential risks, and benefits of such a move. The political landscape, economic conditions, and social implications make this a complex and contentious issue.

Resolution Criteria

The prediction market will resolve in favor of "Yes" if Argentina officially adopts the U.S. dollar as its primary currency, replacing the Argentine peso, before the end of the year 2027.


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Just to note that the title is a bit confusing because, weirdly enough, it seems to "dollarize" actually does not mean to adopt the U.S. dollar as it's primary currency but just to give up on your national currency being the main one being held and used (or fully give up on it in the case of "full dollarization"). That is, whether the non-national currency used is the U.S. dollar, Euro, or a crypto doesn't matter.

I don't expect Argentina is likely to "officially adopt the dollar as its primary currency", but otoh it's somewhat likely that it will be the main currency held by people and even used because it will be allowed to be used more and more. I'm assuming that still resolves no, right?

The word "primary" is really what makes me think this won't happen.

kalshi also has a market with real money stakes on this!

@eightyhi Wow that is ridiculous, I think even if he committed 95% of his efforts to getting this done it would take more than a year..

@eightyhi Too bad only US residents are currently accepted by Kalshi. Argentina is likely to have fully dollarized before Kalshi comes to Quebec (as in both things will happen at t =+\infty)

predicts NO

Hahaha yeah that's what I thought.

predicts NO

@chrisjbillington Whaat? I can't believe

predicts NO

@MP I have no context or background here - I see headline, I bet. No idea how surprising this is!

predicts NO

@chrisjbillington I was being sarcastic

A mere peg is not enough for this to resolve yes, right?

@mariopasquato no, not enough

@FranklinBaldo So people are seriously predicting 40% probability that Argentina switches to using US dollars only as its currency?

predicts NO

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_use_of_the_U.S._dollar currently no major countries are doing that and even pegs are rare

@mariopasquato overpriced right?

@FranklinBaldo Yes, as long as it is interpreted as Argentina fully switching over to the US dollar with the Peso either disappearing or at least mostly falling out of use. On the other hand pegging the peso to the dollar or to a basket of currencies (maybe including bitcoin) seems more likely, though still probably high at 33%. We need to properly estimate the base rate.

predicts NO

Ecuador is the only country with a relatively large population who uses the US dollar as legal tender (US excluded ofc): https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exchange_rate_regime

Presumably he'll have to get support of the Senate and Congress. His party doesn't have a majority in either of those places so he'll be looking for ideological allies.

Does it have to stay dolarized until 31 December 2027? What if it adopts (or pegs the peso to) the US dollar but then it abandons it again?

bought Ṁ35 NO from 46% to 45%

@ArmandodiMatteo resolves yes as soon as it happens.