Context
The proposal to dolarize Argentina's economy has been brought to the forefront by presidential candidate Javier Milei. He argues that dolarization would end the country's inflation problem and proposes to demolish the Central Bank. However, economists and analysts have raised concerns about the feasibility, potential risks, and benefits of such a move. The political landscape, economic conditions, and social implications make this a complex and contentious issue.
Resolution Criteria
The prediction market will resolve in favor of "Yes" if Argentina officially adopts the U.S. dollar as its primary currency, replacing the Argentine peso, before the end of the year 2027.
Sources
Related questions
@eightyhi Wow that is ridiculous, I think even if he committed 95% of his efforts to getting this done it would take more than a year..
@eightyhi Too bad only US residents are currently accepted by Kalshi. Argentina is likely to have fully dollarized before Kalshi comes to Quebec (as in both things will happen at t =+\infty)
Dollarisation dropped:
@MP I have no context or background here - I see headline, I bet. No idea how surprising this is!
@FranklinBaldo So people are seriously predicting 40% probability that Argentina switches to using US dollars only as its currency?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_use_of_the_U.S._dollar currently no major countries are doing that and even pegs are rare
@FranklinBaldo Yes, as long as it is interpreted as Argentina fully switching over to the US dollar with the Peso either disappearing or at least mostly falling out of use. On the other hand pegging the peso to the dollar or to a basket of currencies (maybe including bitcoin) seems more likely, though still probably high at 33%. We need to properly estimate the base rate.
Ecuador is the only country with a relatively large population who uses the US dollar as legal tender (US excluded ofc): https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exchange_rate_regime