Will 2023 be in the top 3 warmest years? | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 21, 2024

Will 2023 be in the top 3 warmest years?

48%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

I will resolve this according to NASA's GISTEMP data here (or wherever it's available). The current 3rd warmest year, 2019, was 0.98° above the 1951-1980 base period. I'll count joint 3rd place as a NO, so currently the number has to be 0.99° or higher for a YES resolution. (That number may change if 2022 turns out to be in the top 3, if they change base periods, if they change past data for some reason, etc.) If GISTEMP isn't available, I'll look at NOAA, HadCRUT, or Berkeley Earth temperature data, in that order.

Edit 2023-02-02: It looks like they adjusted the number for 2019 to 0.97°, so now it has to be 0.98° or higher.

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Scott Supakbought Ṁ10 of YES

Closing date might be too early; NASA sometimes takes until the 15th of the following month to put out the previous month's number.

Stevenis predicting NO at 33%

@ScottSupak Thanks, fixed

Stevenbought Ṁ20 of NO

NOAA is assigning 23% after January, though it has lower temperature projections than some other sources.

Stevenbought Ṁ50 of NO

Why the price spike? The only January global temperature data I can find is the UAH satellite data, which says it was cold.

Stevenis predicting NO at 46%

@StevenK GISTEMP also had a pretty cold January at 0.87 degrees.

Steven bought Ṁ30 NO from 51% to 48%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ11 NO at 51% (cancelled)

Scott Supak bought Ṁ58 YES from 46% to 52%

Scott Supak bought Ṁ33 YES from 42% to 46%

S G bought Ṁ10 NO from 43% to 42%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ29 NO at 43% (cancelled)

Scott Supak bought Ṁ48 YES from 39% to 45%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ27/Ṁ33 NO at 39% (cancelled)

Scott Supak bought Ṁ50 YES from 35% to 41%

Barnaby Colvin bought Ṁ10 YES from 33% to 35%

Scott Supak bought Ṁ10 YES from 32% to 33%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ8 YES at 32% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 YES at 31% (cancelled)

Ilya X Valmianski bought Ṁ100 NO from 38% to 30%

Nico D bought Ṁ10 NO from 39% to 38%

Nico D sold Ṁ8 YES from 40% to 39%

Steven bought Ṁ30 NO from 43% to 40%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ9/Ṁ100 NO at 43% (cancelled)

Steven bought Ṁ20 NO from 46% to 44%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ18/Ṁ100 YES at 46% (cancelled)

Andy Falconer sold Ṁ82 YES from 53% to 44%

Odoacre bought Ṁ10 YES from 52% to 53%

Steven bought Ṁ30 NO from 56% to 52%

habakuk bought Ṁ10 YES from 55% to 56%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ15/Ṁ100 YES at 55% (cancelled)

PryingMind bought Ṁ30 NO from 57% to 53%

Philipp bought Ṁ20 YES from 55% to 57%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ8 NO at 55% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ13/Ṁ100 NO at 56% (cancelled)

Scott Supak bought Ṁ50 YES from 52% to 58%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ9/Ṁ100 YES at 52% (cancelled)

Ansambel sold Ṁ37 YES from 56% to 51%

Nostradamnedus bought Ṁ10 YES from 54% to 56%

Steven bought Ṁ30 NO from 59% to 54%

CubityFirst bought Ṁ10 YES from 58% to 59%

Odoacre bought Ṁ10 YES from 57% to 58%

Jo King bought Ṁ10 NO from 59% to 57%

oh no bought Ṁ10 YES from 57% to 59%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ12/Ṁ15 NO at 57% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ27/Ṁ100 NO at 60% (cancelled)

Andy Falconer bought Ṁ100 YES from 51% to 67%

Steven bought Ṁ50 NO from 62% to 51%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ100 YES at 62% (cancelled)

Steven bought Ṁ50 NO from 73% to 60%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ100 NO at 73% (cancelled)

Philosoraptor bought Ṁ50 YES from 69% to 75%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ100 NO at 69% (cancelled)

Keith Wynroe bought Ṁ50 YES from 62% to 70%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ8 NO at 62% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ100 NO at 63% (cancelled)

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