I will resolve this according to NASA's GISTEMP data here (or wherever it's available). The current 3rd warmest year, 2019, was 0.98° above the 1951-1980 base period. I'll count joint 3rd place as a NO, so currently the number has to be 0.99° or higher for a YES resolution. (That number may change if 2022 turns out to be in the top 3, if they change base periods, if they change past data for some reason, etc.) If GISTEMP isn't available, I'll look at NOAA, HadCRUT, or Berkeley Earth temperature data, in that order.
Edit 2023-02-02: It looks like they adjusted the number for 2019 to 0.97°, so now it has to be 0.98° or higher.
Edit 2023-04-20: Looks like they changed it back again. 0.99° or higher resolves YES, 0.98° or lower resolves NO.
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https://twitter.com/US_Stormwatch/status/1640801446299058176
"Climate models are quickly trending toward the potential for strong or even Super El Niño later this year, which would have profound societal, environmental, and economic impacts worldwide. The last Super El Nino in 2016 led to the hottest year on Earth in recorded history."
NOAA is assigning 23% after January, though it has lower temperature projections than some other sources.
Why the price spike? The only January global temperature data I can find is the UAH satellite data, which says it was cold.