StevenK avatar
closes Jan 21, 2024
Will 2023 be in the top 3 warmest years?

I will resolve this according to NASA's GISTEMP data here (or wherever it's available). The current 3rd warmest year, 2019, was 0.98° above the 1951-1980 base period. I'll count joint 3rd place as a NO, so currently the number has to be 0.99° or higher for a YES resolution. (That number may change if 2022 turns out to be in the top 3, if they change base periods, if they change past data for some reason, etc.) If GISTEMP isn't available, I'll look at NOAA, HadCRUT, or Berkeley Earth temperature data, in that order.

Edit 2023-02-02: It looks like they adjusted the number for 2019 to 0.97°, so now it has to be 0.98° or higher.

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ScottSupak avatar
Scott Supakbought Ṁ10 of YES

Closing date might be too early; NASA sometimes takes until the 15th of the following month to put out the previous month's number.

StevenK avatar
Stevenis predicting NO at 33%

@ScottSupak Thanks, fixed

StevenK avatar
Stevenbought Ṁ20 of NO

NOAA is assigning 23% after January, though it has lower temperature projections than some other sources.

StevenK avatar
Stevenbought Ṁ50 of NO

Why the price spike? The only January global temperature data I can find is the UAH satellite data, which says it was cold.

StevenK avatar
Stevenis predicting NO at 46%

@StevenK GISTEMP also had a pretty cold January at 0.87 degrees.