"Good" is loosely defined here as "preferable according to humanity's extrapolated volition". The market should resolve to PROB at the percentile of goodness of the current quantum branch in the distribution of all quantum branches splitting from the time of market creation (weighted by Born rule measure). For example, if the quantum branch that the market is in ended up better than 90% of branches with the same history up to market creation, then the market should resolve to 90%. It should not resolve until it becomes possible to reliably determine this, probably using AI superintelligence. If it turns out the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics is false, the market should resolve to what the answer would have been if it had been true, or if that turns out not to make sense, to N/A. By participating in this market, you agree not to (threaten to) make the world worse in order to manipulate it. I reserve the right to add further anti-vandalism clauses.
Edit 2023-01-27: I will not bet in this market.
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By participating in this market, you agree not to (threaten to) make the world worse in order to manipulate it. I reserve the right to add further anti-vandalism clauses.
I think there's no way someone could manipulate the E (percentile) if we assumed the future AI to actually approximate ground truth, and the correct price is therefore always 50%? Although one could increase the variance by making some important, crucial decision according to a quantum dice and could therefore increase the variance in one's portfolio.
@Tassilo On the other hand, a person might keep their decision secret, roll their quantum dice and then trade.
@Tassilo I don't think I understand. Why can't a random very bad thing happen and make the expected percentile 1%?
@StevenK It can happen, but you cannot make profit by predicting it in advance, because you don't know in which quantum branch you end up. It is perhaps possible to exploit differences in mean and median world, I get confused thinking about it.
@Tassilo But you can make profit by looking at events that happened after market creation, and realizing their implications before other people do. For example, no global catastrophe happened in the last year, and maybe that means the expected percentile of the goodness of our future is higher than 50% in the distribution of futures starting a year ago, which makes the proper market price also higher than 50%.