Will the August 23, 2023 Republican Presidential debate be civilized?
53
714
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resolved Aug 25
Resolved
YES

A GOP Presidential debate is being held on August 23, 2023. Debates in previous cycles have been labeled as uncivilized or unbecoming of America. For the resolution of this market, a review will be conducted on the morning of August 25 of all articles posted about the debate on August 24, 2023 on CNN.com, excluding "Live Updates during the debate" feeds.

This market resolves to NO if there are more articles that criticize multiple candidates, moderators, audience members, the debate hall, or others involved with producing the debate for uncivil behavior than there are articles praising these people for managing a substantive debate that helped audience members decide who to vote for.

Otherwise, if praise is the majority opinion, if there is equal weight on both sides, or if the debate is so conventional that nobody comments at all about its civility, this market resolves to YES.

The spirit of the question is targeted at the civility of the debate itself. Therefore, excessive personal attacks by a single candidate, which cause controversy over that candidate's actions and which don't degrade the conversation in general, are insufficient to label the debate in its entirety as "uncivilized."

The market resolves to N/A if the debate is cancelled or if CNN doesn't publish a single article about the topic on August 24.


RESOLUTION: A search of CNN.com was conducted and none of the articles posted on August 24 used the word "civil." Furthermore, there were no opinion pieces criticizing the debate for its lack of civility. The criteria state that a debate so conventional so as not to cause any criticism is civilized, and so this resolves to YES.

See everyone next time at https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-the-september-27-2023-republic !

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predicted YES

I fully expect this to resolve YES, as I did when I placed my bet. The reason I believed so was simple; Trump announced he wasn’t going to be there. Part of his “charm” was his ability to banter endlessly and put down others, a lot of which he did via personal attacks that would be considered in poor taste for an presidential candidate. In other words, he was funny.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Couldnt find any specific articles on CNN commenting on the civility of the debate, and even the main article leaves virtually no comment on it, and is not included in the 7 "main takeaways" .

As there is virtually no comment on the civility, the debate was pretty conventional, this should resolve YES. Especially following the spirit of the question.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/23/politics/takeaways-republican-debate/index.html

@Dennis5a87 Correct - as it stands now, it would resolve YES. But the resolution criteria state that we will wait until tomorrow morning to see if there are any additional articles published.

I personally am surprised by this outcome. I purposely didn't bet on this market, but I would have put a lot of money on NO.

I think it's just that no one expected the debate to be civil, so it's not noteworthy that it wasn't particularly civil.

@n1psey I would have put some good money on NO here if the odds had been better, good thing I didn't

@n1psey No, I actually think that it was pretty civil, and the reason is simply that Trump wasn't there. There were a few heated arguments that were obviously acted to draw attention, but I wouldn't say they were out of line with what we saw in the 2012 Republican debates before Trump.

@n1psey And by the way, I also think that the resolution of this market will almost entirely depend on whether Trump's lead shrunk because he did his X "interview" that nobody watched and he shows up to demean everyone in the next debate: https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-the-september-27-2023-republic

Will the September 27, 2023 Republican Presidential debate be civilized?
43% chance. A GOP Presidential debate is being held on September 27, 2023. Debates in previous cycles have been labeled as uncivilized or unbecoming of America. For the resolution of this market, a review will be conducted on the morning of September 29 of all articles posted about the debate on September 28 on CNN.com, excluding "Live Updates during the debate" feeds. This market resolves to NO if there are more articles that criticize multiple candidates, moderators, audience members, the debate hall, or others involved with producing the debate for uncivil behavior than there are articles praising these people for managing a substantive debate that helped audience members decide who to vote for. Otherwise, if praise is the majority opinion, if there is equal weight on both sides, or if the debate is so conventional that nobody comments at all about its civility, this market resolves to YES. The spirit of the question is targeted at the civility of the debate itself. Therefore, excessive personal attacks by a single candidate, which cause controversy over that candidate's actions and which don't degrade the conversation in general, are insufficient to label the debate in its entirety as "uncivilized." The market resolves to N/A if the debate is cancelled, postponed until after September 30 at 11:59:59pm EDT, or if CNN doesn't publish a single article about the topic on September 28. See also: https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-the-august-23-2023-republican

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Wonderful source you have chosen

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@lukres my thoughts exactly^

@Riggin "will CNNs sentiment about the republican presidential debate be "praise" or "uncivilized""?

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