Will Ron DeSantis speak the most during the August 23, 2023 Republican Presidential debate?
28
287
550
resolved Aug 24
Resolved
NO

A Republican Presidential debate will be held on August 23, 2023. This market will track whether Ron DeSantis speaks more than any other candidate during the debate.

On August 24, I will obtain a transcript of the debate from FOX News. If FOX doesn't publish a transcript, a transcript will be obtained from another mainstream media outlet instead.

I will input the transcript into Claude 2, and ask the model to count the number of words that each candidate said while the debate was LIVE on air. If I discover or someone points out that Claude 2 is incorrect, then the correct answer will be used. Gestures, actions, transcript comments, and words said during commercial breaks aren't included. Because the transcript won't document speaking rate, it is possible that a different candidate could actually speak for more time but use fewer words.

  • If DeSantis is revealed to have spoken the most words, or if the moderator ranks first but DeSantis is second, this market resolves to YES.

  • If any other candidate speaks more words than DeSantis, the market resolves to NO.

  • If the debate is cancelled, the market resolves to N/A.

The market will not close until August 24 because it will take time to obtain the transcript and analyze it for this and other similar markets I have posted.

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predicted NO

While an official transcript hasn't been published yet, DeSantis clearly did not speak the most in this debate, and it isn't even close. @MitchellAddington posted one source, and the New York Times also agrees with this analysis, placing DeSantis in #4. Resolving as NO.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/08/23/us/politics/republican-debate-live-tracker.html

predicted NO

@SteveSokolowski plus, he spoke fairly slowly. No way he said more words than vivek in less time.

predicted YES

If anyone wants to put a big bet on this, drop some limit orders

bought Ṁ0 of YES

What happens if Claude gets it wrong? Will you resolve to the validated answer, or Claude’s initial finding?

@Gen The validated answer.

See this related market:

https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/how-many-times-will-trump-be-mentio

How many times will Trump be mentioned during the August 23, 2023 Republican debate?
49% chance. In 2020, my mom said that one can't watch TV for more than two minutes without hearing about Donald Trump. That may also be the case during the GOP debate on August 23, 2023, even if he doesn't attend. This market will track the number of times the word "Trump" is said (or sung, or rapped) while the debate is being aired LIVE, as recorded on the official transcript provided by FOX News. If such a transcript isn't available, then one from another mainstream media source will be used. The market will resolve to the following: PROB, with the percent equaling the number of times "Trump" is said, if the number is between 1 and 99 inclusive YES, if the word "Trump" is said greater than or equal to 100 times NO, if the word "Trump" is never said N/A, if the debate is cancelled or postponed To resolve the market, I'll upload the transcript to Claude 2 and provide the following prompt: "This is a transcript of a debate. Read the transcript and count the number of times the word "Trump" was said while the debate was live on-air. Be careful to ignore notes and annotations; only count the number of unique instances the word was actually said by a person. Respond with exactly one number." I will then ask it additional questions about the transcript to confirm that the reasoning is sound, and will look at the transcript myself and consider corrections through comments if necessary. The market will close on August 24, to allow for time to obtain the transcript.

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