A Republican Presidential debate will be held on August 23, 2023. This market will track whether Ron DeSantis speaks more than any other candidate during the debate.
On August 24, I will obtain a transcript of the debate from FOX News. If FOX doesn't publish a transcript, a transcript will be obtained from another mainstream media outlet instead.
I will input the transcript into Claude 2, and ask the model to count the number of words that each candidate said while the debate was LIVE on air. If I discover or someone points out that Claude 2 is incorrect, then the correct answer will be used. Gestures, actions, transcript comments, and words said during commercial breaks aren't included. Because the transcript won't document speaking rate, it is possible that a different candidate could actually speak for more time but use fewer words.
If DeSantis is revealed to have spoken the most words, or if the moderator ranks first but DeSantis is second, this market resolves to YES.
If any other candidate speaks more words than DeSantis, the market resolves to NO.
If the debate is cancelled, the market resolves to N/A.
The market will not close until August 24 because it will take time to obtain the transcript and analyze it for this and other similar markets I have posted.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ310 | |
| 2 | Ṁ88 | |
| 3 | Ṁ67 | |
| 4 | Ṁ49 | |
| 5 | Ṁ41 |
While an official transcript hasn't been published yet, DeSantis clearly did not speak the most in this debate, and it isn't even close. @MitchellAddington posted one source, and the New York Times also agrees with this analysis, placing DeSantis in #4. Resolving as NO.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/08/23/us/politics/republican-debate-live-tracker.html
@SteveSokolowski plus, he spoke fairly slowly. No way he said more words than vivek in less time.
See this related market:
https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/how-many-times-will-trump-be-mentio
