A Republican Presidential debate will be held on August 23, 2023. This market will track whether Ron DeSantis speaks more than any other candidate during the debate.

On August 24, I will obtain a transcript of the debate from FOX News. If FOX doesn't publish a transcript, a transcript will be obtained from another mainstream media outlet instead.

I will input the transcript into Claude 2, and ask the model to count the number of words that each candidate said while the debate was LIVE on air. If I discover or someone points out that Claude 2 is incorrect, then the correct answer will be used. Gestures, actions, transcript comments, and words said during commercial breaks aren't included. Because the transcript won't document speaking rate, it is possible that a different candidate could actually speak for more time but use fewer words.

• If DeSantis is revealed to have spoken the most words, or if the moderator ranks first but DeSantis is second, this market resolves to YES.

• If any other candidate speaks more words than DeSantis, the market resolves to NO.

• If the debate is cancelled, the market resolves to N/A.

The market will not close until August 24 because it will take time to obtain the transcript and analyze it for this and other similar markets I have posted.