In 2020, my mom said that one can't watch TV for more than two minutes without hearing about Donald Trump. That may also be the case during the GOP debate on August 23, 2023, even if he doesn't attend.

This market will track the number of times the word "Trump" is said (or sung, or rapped) while the debate is being aired LIVE, as recorded on the official transcript provided by FOX News. If such a transcript isn't available, then one from another mainstream media source will be used.

The market will resolve to the following:

• PROB, with the percent equaling the number of times "Trump" is said, if the number is between 1 and 99 inclusive

• YES, if the word "Trump" is said greater than or equal to 100 times

• NO, if the word "Trump" is never said

• N/A, if the debate is cancelled or postponed

To resolve the market, I'll upload the transcript to Claude 2 and provide the following prompt:

"This is a transcript of a debate. Read the transcript and count the number of times the word "Trump" was said while the debate was live on-air. Be careful to ignore notes and annotations; only count the number of unique instances the word was actually said by a person. Respond with exactly one number."

I will then ask it additional questions about the transcript to confirm that the reasoning is sound, and will look at the transcript myself and consider corrections through comments if necessary. The market will close on August 24, to allow for time to obtain the transcript.

RESOLUTION: I input the transcript into Claude 2, and it responded with the number 25. I double-checked with Chrome by CTRL-F searching the traditional way, and confirmed the number.