The Boeing Starliner mission that launched on June 5, 2024 had at the time of market creation experienced six failures, including helium leaks and engine failures. If the spacecraft does dock with the International Space Station, it's foreseeable that additional problems could be discovered during a post-docking inspection that declare the vehicle unsafe. Or, a post-landing inspection could rule future missions inadvisable.
This market will resolve to YES if Boeing or the US government announces before June 30, 2024 that it has terminated, or plans to terminate, the Starliner program and cancel all future missions. Resources might still be expended after the announcement to safely return the astronauts to Earth and to wind down the program. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
See also: /SteveSokolowski/will-the-boeing-starliner-abort-the
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3.00@SimonWestlake If there continue to be missteps on the current flight, I think this market is a lock for YES.
@SteveSokolowski I really doubt it. Aiui there's pretty significant penalties if Boeing reneges on the contract.
@Mqrius I don't think the termination would come from Boeing. It would come from NASA, which is well known for being extremely conservative and safety-conscious. The continuing errors and failures are tarnishing NASA's reputation and an abort would definitely end the program.
@SteveSokolowski On NASA's side, there's significant pressure to not solely rely on SpaceX, even nowadays. From Nasa internally and from congress, and from lobbying to congress. I just don't see it happening.
@Mqrius I think the market is undervalued because people are assuming "well, the spacecraft fixed all the issues enough to get to the space station, so everything is fine now." NASA is going to be performing all sorts of data analyses and asking the astronauts to perform inspections while docked.
It's quite different for them to continue the mission while the spacecraft is flying on its own, compared to approving departure in a spacecraft that has already had ten major failures during the mission from a place where rescue is easy.
And, even if they do return without further incidents (further incidents are likely given the rate of incidents so far), what has already happened is going to ground the spacecraft for months or years just like the clock failure did the last time around.
@Mqrius By the way, an additional two failures occurred after docking, bringing the total number of failures to nine, after just two days. I decided to enter this market as YES.
@SteveSokolowski I mean, I certainly see reasons to abort this mission right now. But cancelling the program is a whole 'nother thing, and announcing cancelling the program within a month is even bigger. But we'll see, good markets anyway since there's disagreements to bet on!
@Mqrius Now the date seems to be June 18 for "systems checks."
I bought more YES. I still don't see how NASA makes a decision to send astronauts off a safe space station that Musk can rescue them from, into a vehicle with engine failures, helium leaks, water problems, etc. Failure of a sufficient number of engines after departure means death.
And if they decide not to depart, the program is over. The reason Starliner exists is because the Columbia disaster essentially caused the end of the Space Shuttle program.
I shorted BA with a small position. I am not going above 8% here because the main risk is that if a rescue mission occurs, they may wait until the astronauts get home before announcing the program is cancelled.