Many technical indicators, events such as potential ETF approvals, monthly patterns such as the known beginning-of-month rises, outstanding performance on January 1 in 2014, 2017, and 2023, and long-term patterns such as the 2019 bubble, are lining up for a cycle top in bitcoin in early January.
This market will resolve to YES if the top of this bitcoin bubble cycle occurs around the date that the ETF approvals are expected.
Specifically, the highest price between January 3, 2024 and January 17, 2024 ($49,102) must be higher than the highest price between March 3, 2024 and March 17, 2024.
Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO.
1,000
3.00@SteveSokolowski It’ll still stay above 50k for another week, so I guess this market will resolve on March 3
@Gideon37 If February 29 is the top - and two 10+% consecutive days has historically signaled the 4-year trend reversal in bitcoin - then a 30% drop in three days would be expected, bringing prices down below $42,000 for an initial bottom.
The risk would be a recovery for a second lower top a few weeks later at $50,000 or so, which would indeed resolve the market to NO. But there are also reasons to suggest that the $49,102 top in January would serve as resistance for the rebound top.
We are very close to the end of this cycle. If Feb 29 isn't it, then the typical drop at the beginning of the month combined with the typical weekend drop will probably do it on March 1.
I am going to place a real money short at $65,000, and will put a stoploss at $70,100, at which point I would go long. I will also close the short at $49,500, in case the January top serves as the first bottom.
@SteveSokolowski Thank you, very interesting to hear your analysis. You mentioned the four year cycle, iirc the last top was in 2021. What makes you believe that it accelerates? In the past, we saw a strong rally up to and the year following the halving, what makes you think it’ll be different this time?
You’re right, Bitcoin can be very volatile, yet going down 30% in 3 days, could you point me to the date that happened in the past? I couldn’t find anything like it in 2021 or 2017/18
@SteveSokolowski It did not happen on Mar 1; we're very close to Mar 3 now, and IMO there's no significant indication that it will go into a sharp drop in the next few hours. I'll take the No side on this.
@ssh Yeah, it looks like a loss for me. I sold out.
Every day worries me. We have 15 bitcoins and 200 ETH owed and BlockFi bought them at $45,827. I'm trying to see if there's some way that someone will create an open-ended futures contract that I can deliver when they pay out, because I don't know whether it will be in 2 weeks or 4.
@ManaHound The time period has not elapsed. If there is a higher price than $49,102 between March 3 and March 17, then it will resolve as NO.
I personally am betting on YES, because the rate of growth is unsustainable and there are even fewer use cases this time around than there were the last time the price was this high, and because the halving hype will lead to a crash. But the hype might last into March, so I think it will be close.
@SteveSokolowski Are you using a particular data source for price? It can be helpful to have that in case it comes down to the wire in the end.
The floor price on the first comparison period rose to $47,330.
@BoltonBailey wait you're right I misread the date, I thought it was march 2023 to 2024. NM this is a bad metric for oeakiness