Background

Bitcoin, the first and most well-known cryptocurrency, has experienced significant price volatility throughout its history. Bitcoin has historically undergone several major corrections, including drops of more than 50% from previous all-time highs.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if at any point between now and January 1, 2040, the price of Bitcoin falls more than 50% from its all-time high at the time this market was created or from a new all-time high reached after this market was created.

For example:

• Bitcoin's current ATH is $103,332.30. If it falls below $51,666.15 (50% drop) at any point before January 1, 2040, this market resolves to YES.

• If Bitcoin reaches a new ATH (e.g., $200,000) and then falls below $100,000 (50% drop from that new ATH) before January 1, 2040, this market resolves to YES.

• If Bitcoin never falls more than 50% from its ATH before January 1, 2040, this market resolves to NO.

The price will be determined using eliable cryptocurrency price aggregators such as CoinMarketCap or CoinGecko. The price drop has to be sustained for more than 1 hour for this to resolve to Yes.