Background
Bitcoin, the first and most well-known cryptocurrency, has experienced significant price volatility throughout its history. Bitcoin has historically undergone several major corrections, including drops of more than 50% from previous all-time highs.
Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to YES if at any point between now and January 1, 2040, the price of Bitcoin falls more than 50% from its all-time high at the time this market was created or from a new all-time high reached after this market was created.
For example:
Bitcoin's current ATH is $103,332.30. If it falls below $51,666.15 (50% drop) at any point before January 1, 2040, this market resolves to YES.
If Bitcoin reaches a new ATH (e.g., $200,000) and then falls below $100,000 (50% drop from that new ATH) before January 1, 2040, this market resolves to YES.
If Bitcoin never falls more than 50% from its ATH before January 1, 2040, this market resolves to NO.
The price will be determined using eliable cryptocurrency price aggregators such as CoinMarketCap or CoinGecko. The price drop has to be sustained for more than 1 hour for this to resolve to Yes.
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See here for a related question, regarding the S&P 500: https://manifold.markets/JZB/will-the-sp-500-fall-more-than-50-f
@JZB It happened again in which the price of bitcoin fell below the 50% threshold ($63,040), but this was not sustained for an entire hour (it occured between 5:25am and 5:55am GMT, on Tuesday Feb 24, before increasing above the 50% threshold). As the formal criteria has not been met yet, this market remains open.
@JZB on CMC looks like it already stuck for the last hour+ under the threshold there ($63,099) and on Coingecko (the $63,040 you mentioned) is about to, like in 5 min.
@deagol Yes! The criteria has now been met, from 1:25 to 2:25pm GMT time, Tuesday, February 24, 2026.