Was Trump actually changed by the assassination attempt?
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Note: The original market creator is no longer associated with this market. It will remain open and the @mods will resolve it instead when it closes.

On July 14, 2024, Donald Trump provided interviews to journalists, in which he stated that he was glad to be alive and that his survival had changed him. Trump stated that he was going to rewrite his convention speech, unify the country, and change the way his campaign was run.

People are often changed after significant events. Was Trump changed too?

This market will resolve to YES if, on November 30, 2024, it is clear that Donald Trump has run a less extreme campaign than he had been running before the attempt on his life. The @mods will make the sole judgment on whether Trump has changed, based on whether he has moderated according (but not limited) to the following criteria:

  • Whether Trump uses less hateful words during rallies, debates, and speeches

  • Whether Trump calls for violence (other than in foreign policy)

  • Whether Trump treats Biden gracefully when he wins, or concedes if he doesn't

  • Whether Trump is more respectful of political traditions, such as how to debate

The comparison is between the average of Trump's behavior in this campaign before the assassination attempt, compared to the average of Trump's behavior between July 13, 2024 and November 30, 2024.

Trump does not have to become a typical generic politican to have been changed. He only has to significantly and noticably behave in a less extreme manner than he did before July 13. Trump's policy positions are not relevant to this market.

The market will resolve to N/A if Trump dies before November 30, and to NO otherwise.

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I am not comfortable with having my name associated with the resolution of this market (or any market involving Trump.)

I ask the @mods to reassign the market and to be responsible for resolving it.

@SteveSokolowski Alright, I'll be responsible for resolving it. We can't change it displaying under your name though

@jacksonpolack OK, this market is short-term, so you can resolve it. For the other markets, I will just close them because they would be open after Trump takes office.

Recent rhetoric leading to bomb threats in makes it clear he’s not toning it down and he’s made fun of the idea he should change or pull back.

Any update for August? This should resolve no. @mods

see the criteria, this resolves on November 30, 2024

I stated that I would provide monthly updates. For July, the events that I would look at for this market include:

  1. The entirety of Trump's acceptance speech

  2. Trump's speeches at his rallies

  3. Trump's statements to POLITICO and other outlets as to whether he had changed

  4. Trump's selection of Vance and his comments on Vance's comments

Resolve NO. Please @mods .

The text of the market states that the market will be closed on November 30, 2024, so I cannot resolve it before then.

It also states that, monthly, I'll provide updates on things that seem to indicate Trump's behavior, which I'll do in two days.

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@mods should delete this comment.

bought Ṁ250 NO

I don't think comments can be deleted. But the truth is, how could this resolve yes? Any major change going forward from today would be impossible to attribute to the shooting.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/28/us/politics/trump-vance-unity-minnesota.html

“They all say, ‘I think he’s changed. I think he’s changed since two weeks ago. Something affected him.’”

But to a cheering crowd of thousands, Mr. Trump quickly conceded the point. “No, I haven’t changed,” he said. “Maybe I’ve gotten worse. Because I get angry at the incompetence that I witness every single day.”

I don't know how it could be any clearer!

This clearly resolves no at this point.

This will resolve only after the election, but I’d like to see a comment whether or not this would resolve no, if resolved today.

bought Ṁ100 NO

Just go read his insane rants on TruthSocial and buy more NO.

He was changed. Now has pierced ear.

bought Ṁ250 YES from 22% to 24%
bought Ṁ10 NO at 22%
bought Ṁ100 NO

This was posted to Trumps platform two days ago. I consider that a signal for NO.

bought Ṁ500 NO

Lmao of course it didn’t change him. Anyone hold yes is fucking moron

4 traders bought Ṁ900 YES
  1. It's possible he might put on a moderate guise- not necessarily because of the attack, but just because it suits him. This would count as yes.

  2. Who knows how the random guy who is running this market will judge things?

I can see in Trump's eyes that he is changed. He looks like someone who is both more appreciative of his luck in life, and also, that he has some sort of divine power behind him. I don't think Trump is religious, but he will probably be more spiritual now when he talks about shark and electrocution risk.

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