On July 14, 2024, Donald Trump provided interviews to journalists, in which he stated that he was glad to be alive and that his survival had changed him. Trump stated that he was going to rewrite his convention speech, unify the country, and change the way his campaign was run.
People are often changed after significant events. Was Trump changed too?
This market will resolve to YES if, on November 30, 2024, it is clear that Donald Trump has run a less extreme campaign than he had been running before the attempt on his life. I will make the sole judgment on whether Trump has changed, based on whether he has moderated according (but not limited) to the following criteria:
Whether Trump uses less hateful words during rallies, debates, and speeches
Whether Trump calls for violence (other than in foreign policy)
Whether Trump treats Biden gracefully when he wins, or concedes if he doesn't
Whether Trump is more respectful of political traditions, such as how to debate
The comparison is between the average of Trump's behavior in this campaign before the assassination attempt, compared to the average of Trump's behavior between July 13, 2024 and November 30, 2024. Weekly or monthly, I will point out things Trump has done that will be considered in the evaluation, without stating whether they reflect positively or negatively upon his behavior.
Trump does not have to become a typical generic politican to have been changed. He only has to significantly and noticably behave in a less extreme manner than he did before July 13. Trump's policy positions are not relevant to this market.
The market will resolve to N/A if Trump dies before November 30, and to NO otherwise.
Related questions
I stated that I would provide monthly updates. For July, the events that I would look at for this market include:
The entirety of Trump's acceptance speech
Trump's speeches at his rallies
Trump's statements to POLITICO and other outlets as to whether he had changed
Trump's selection of Vance and his comments on Vance's comments
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/28/us/politics/trump-vance-unity-minnesota.html
“They all say, ‘I think he’s changed. I think he’s changed since two weeks ago. Something affected him.’”
But to a cheering crowd of thousands, Mr. Trump quickly conceded the point. “No, I haven’t changed,” he said. “Maybe I’ve gotten worse. Because I get angry at the incompetence that I witness every single day.”
I don't know how it could be any clearer!
I can see in Trump's eyes that he is changed. He looks like someone who is both more appreciative of his luck in life, and also, that he has some sort of divine power behind him. I don't think Trump is religious, but he will probably be more spiritual now when he talks about shark and electrocution risk.
The resolving of this market with your criteria doesn‘t make sense though. He may change his ways in public appearances, but only until he becomes the president, because he wants people to vote for him and this is a good opportunity for that. That does not mean however, that he changed, he just appears tot he public as changed, until the election is over.
I will point out periodically some of the key events that suggest a resolution one way or the other, so that people aren't shocked at market close. I will not express an opinion on the directionality of those events, only point them out.
In regards to the timeframe, you are correct. This market is focused on the campaign, not on Trump's entire life, and that is why it closes after the election. The text of the market description reflects the short-term nature of the market and how it compares his behavior only during the campaign.