Note: The original market creator is no longer associated with this market. It will remain open and the @mods will resolve it instead when it closes.
On July 14, 2024, Donald Trump provided interviews to journalists, in which he stated that he was glad to be alive and that his survival had changed him. Trump stated that he was going to rewrite his convention speech, unify the country, and change the way his campaign was run.
People are often changed after significant events. Was Trump changed too?
This market will resolve to YES if, on November 30, 2024, it is clear that Donald Trump has run a less extreme campaign than he had been running before the attempt on his life. The @mods will make the sole judgment on whether Trump has changed, based on whether he has moderated according (but not limited) to the following criteria:
Whether Trump uses less hateful words during rallies, debates, and speeches
Whether Trump calls for violence (other than in foreign policy)
Whether Trump treats Biden gracefully when he wins, or concedes if he doesn't
Whether Trump is more respectful of political traditions, such as how to debate
The comparison is between the average of Trump's behavior in this campaign before the assassination attempt, compared to the average of Trump's behavior between July 13, 2024 and November 30, 2024.
Trump does not have to become a typical generic politican to have been changed. He only has to significantly and noticably behave in a less extreme manner than he did before July 13. Trump's policy positions are not relevant to this market.
The market will resolve to N/A if Trump dies before November 30, and to NO otherwise.
1,000
3.00@MugaSofer As I stated below, I'm no longer making any public statements about Trump's performance. The mods have agreed to resolve the market and you should contact them.
@SteveSokolowski Yes, sorry, I meant that to be directed @mods. Mods, can this please resolve? It seems like a pretty clear NO.
I am not comfortable with having my name associated with the resolution of this market (or any market involving Trump.)
I ask the @mods to reassign the market and to be responsible for resolving it.
@SteveSokolowski Alright, I'll be responsible for resolving it. We can't change it displaying under your name though
@jacksonpolack OK, this market is short-term, so you can resolve it. For the other markets, I will just close them because they would be open after Trump takes office.
@traders Does anyone want to present arguments that he was changed by the attempt, as described by the criteria? The case that he wasn't seems clear.
@jacksonpolack (Disclosure: I voted NO and continue to think the true answer is NO)
The best case for saying YES is twofold:
- on one hand, the listed cases happened to be mostly weakened by combination of his resounding victory and his little engagement with traditional media, so we can't rely on them.
- on the other hand, we haven't seen credible promises of prosecution now in November, which were the hallmark of 2016 IIRC.
@jacksonpolack his agreement with RFK Jr happened immediately after the assassination attempt. Very clearly this was a huge and consequential change.
@GraemeStuart How is a change in extremity of his campaign rather than getting someone to bow to it?
I stated that I would provide monthly updates. For July, the events that I would look at for this market include:
The entirety of Trump's acceptance speech
Trump's speeches at his rallies
Trump's statements to POLITICO and other outlets as to whether he had changed
Trump's selection of Vance and his comments on Vance's comments