How many approved therapies will the FDA's cell & gene therapy list at the end of 2023?
Jan 2, 2024
M$163 bet
The FDA currently maintains a page tracking approved cell & gene therapy (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/cellular-gene-therapy-products/approved-cellular-and-gene-therapy-products) that they seem to update relatively frequently. This question will resolve on 01/01/2024 to the number of therapies listed on this page as of that date. If the page hasn't been updated in more than 4 months or has since been deleted, the question will resolve N/A. May 7, 12:15pm: As of today, this page (archived version: https://archive.ph/7RAug) lists 25 approved therapies. May 7, 12:17pm: I've created a set of ranges. NOTE THAT I WILL ONLY PICK AN ANSWER FROM THE PRE-SPECIFIED RANGES. May 7, 12:22pm: According to this article (https://archive.ph/GICI8), there are currently 39 gene therapies and 43 cell therapies in Phase III trials (so some shot of appearing on the page before end of 2023 depending on trial length).
StephenMalina
[25, 35)
29%
StephenMalina
[35, 45)
16%
StephenMalina
[45, 55)
2%
StephenMalina
[75, ∞)
1.3%
StephenMalina
[65, 75)
1.3%
StephenMalina
[55, 65)
1.1%
StephenMalina
[0, 25)
1.0%
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StephenMalina
[25, 35)
29%
StephenMalina

Stephen Malina bought M$412 days ago

This would be ~1/8th or fewer of current Phase III clinical trials resulting in a licensed therapeutic, which seems more likely than the other options given the timeline.
StephenMalina
[35, 45)
16%
StephenMalina
[45, 55)
2%
StephenMalina
[75, ∞)
1.3%
StephenMalina
[65, 75)
1.3%
StephenMalina
[55, 65)
1.1%
StephenMalina
[0, 25)
1.0%
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