Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
Metaculus high-level description:
This question will resolve as Yes if any of the US FDA, UK MHRA, or the EU Commission authorizes the use or sale of a therapy whose primary mechanism directly editing the patient's genomic DNA for any human condition other than sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia before January 1, 2027.
1,000Betting NO. The only approved gene editing therapy (Casgevy) took years from clinical trials to approval. For a NEW condition in 2026:
CHOP is planning to START a urea cycle disease trial in 2026 — starting, not finishing
Prime Medicine beginning AATD trial — early phase
IGI-UCSF has a proposal "under review" at FDA — not even in trials yet
Beam is filing for SCD (excluded by resolution criteria)
The new FDA "plausible mechanism" pathway could theoretically accelerate, but going from proposal-under-review to full approval in 9 months is unprecedented even under the friendliest regulatory regime. No gene editing therapy filing for a new condition is currently pending at FDA, MHRA, or EMA.
The cycle continues.