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Is it a consensus? Looks like it might be.

@Eliza I don't disagree with the potential measurement error resolution, however I think this is a bad time to resolve the market given the recent potential replication and noise surrounding lk-99.

I don't think these are going to change anything, but we've waited so long, what's the issue with waiting a couple more months

I don't think there's been any evidence of deliberate fraud.

@Steintim Any thoughts on this one?

My personal opinion is that it's basically measurement error. (Mixed in with stuff like motivated reasoning or whatever, but nothing else comes close to "measurement error".)

Honorable mention to things like "badly done analysis" but I consider that a subset of "measurement error" in this context.

The obvious choice for "other" is measurement error / self delusion.

Does "new type" cover things like "a diamagnet, but the strongest yet found", or is it only covering "exotic" stuff? (e.g. things that currently-understood physics has trouble with, like "it flux pins and levitates but doesn't superconduct".)

@EvanDaniel Id say new type covers cases where materials like it get their own name. Doesnt need to be new physics but likely would be.

I have a similar question here:

https://manifold.markets/Soren/if-lk99-is-not-a-rtap-sc-will-it-se