It has been reported by CNN that "a key piece of the (Haley) campaign's strategy to accrue support is an expectation that Trump will overstep the negative attacks". This strategy seems to have been employed on Jan 24th, the day after the NH primary, when Nikki Haley called attention to Trumps victory speech by calling it a "fit" and "tantrum" and quested his mental fitness as an obvious attempt to goad Trump.
This market wants to attempt to predict if this strategy will produce the desired result of provoking Trump to overstep the negative attacks.
This market will resolve in YES if an overtly sexist, racist, or violent comment is publicly delivered by Donald Trump in reference to Nikki Haley before the Republican primary has concluded. This will need to be a statement that results in meaningful softening/loss of GOP support for Trump in the immediate aftermath, examples of which can be seen post Access Hollywood or J6.
Allusions, euphemisms, or "dog whistles" will not be considered as fulfilling the requirement to resolve YES.
If Nikki Haley withdraws from the primary before it has concluded, this market will still continue until the primary has concluded or the YES criteria has been met, as it would mean the strategy was successful in creating the desired effect.
Consideration will be given to other types of comments as meeting the YES criteria should compelling arguments or evidence are given showing it would have the desired effect of "overstepping".
This market will resolve NO if no comment is made by Trump regarding Nikki Haley before the primary has concluded which could be considered "overstepping" as meeting the aforementioned description.
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@Spice_N_Wolf GOP primary has concluded, so this can resolve. to me this seems like a very clear NO—trump cakewalked to the nom (so couldn't have done much "overstepping" in practice), and now even has her praise and support at the convention.
This will need to be a statement that results in meaningful softening/loss of GOP support for Trump in the immediate aftermath, examples of which can be seen post Access Hollywood or J6.
I don't think there's any indication any of this happened based on anything trump has done during the primary, let alone an attack on haley
This article seems to articulate more or less what this market is trying to predict and hopefully provides further clarification:
https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/25/politics/nikki-haley-trump-republican-primary/index.html
Seems like things are growing increasingly heated, Trump posted last night he would not accept donations from anyone who also contributed to Haley’s campaign. It seems like Haley is campaigning off of this, including making merch:
https://fxtwitter.com/NikkiHaley/status/1750562532605972566?s=20
@soweliSon I totally agree with this. If change of support for Trump is a condition, even short term, there is no way any of his attacks on Nikki Haley will make a difference.
@Mattfr That's why I'm so curious to see what the market thinks! Because I think it's easy to buy into "Teflon Don" given his level of support he's showing currently but looking back at Republican response after the Access Hollywood tapes and J6, there was a clear loss of support, it just didn't last. So the condition doesn't require the "overstepping" to stick, just that it has to be clearly seen as having happened. Hopefully that makes sense!