Resolution criteria: if someone other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential election then this resolves Yes. Resolves No if either of them win.

Trying to judge the sentiment on the likelihood of someone other than Biden or Trump winning the election. While the probability still seems high that we will see a Biden v Trump match up in Nov, there are also hurdles that could take either or both of them out of the picture.

A significant percentage of republican voters said they will not support Trump if he is convicted of a felony. Recent rumors have been flying about the possibility of Biden forgoing the nomination given his dwindling support among the demographics that helped him win in 2020.

I do not participate in polls I create.