Clarifying resolution criteria:
[YES] Dems wins a plurality of votes in the Presidential election in all seven states listed.
[NO] One or more of the seven states is won by the Republican candidate.
While the suggested criteria of the change in the margin between the two major parties is really intriguing, Dems won 6 of the 7 states in 2020. IMO, for those 6, it would only mean an increased margin which is not a terribly impactful result and would reduce the poll to shifting margins in NC. I’m really trying to gauge the public sentiment as we approach Election Day about the composite of these 7 states that will determine the overall outcome.
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Polls are closing in the first states now. I’m ending the bidding. I will not resolve the market until each of the 7 states is called individually.
Nate’s model runs as of this morning (9/29) have the most likely outcome on the seven swing states being a Harris sweep in 15,273 of the 70k iterations (~21.8%).
Since NC maybe the most interesting toss up in this set of 7 battleground states, I created another poll to gauge how close people think the election will be there.
I like this market a bunch, thanks for making it!
If folks want to bet on finer details, I made a market for how many:
Close states: How many of 7 will vote Dem in 2024? AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI
"[YES] Harris wins the majority of votes in all seven states listed." Plurality will also count, right?
@SpaceboyLuke I see that the clarifying criteria you added mention the candidates by name, but since the original question is about "blue" rather than "Harris", I assume that if one or both candidates are replaced for some reason, the question can still resolve yes or no based on the party that wins?
While I don’t expect any more changes to the tickets, yes that’s a good clarifying point. I’ll edit to only reference the party rather than the explicit candidate name.
what does swing blue mean? Does it count the state percentage margin becoming more dem? or does Kamala have to win all the states?
The use of swing implies a shift, not a flip. i.e. a state could "swing red" but still be won by Harris, just by a smaller margin than 2020 and a state could "swing blue" but still be won by Trump (NC). It would also be good to clarify if the swing is measured by D-R margin (what I would recommend) or by pure vote share (which would be diluted by increased 3rd party voting this election).
It was only 1% off or so last time. Otoh Harris isn't polling as well as Biden overall and especially in the south, I think.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
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Why use play money?People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?