This market resolves YES if, by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2027, the joint venture has formally closed — meaning all required regulatory clearances have been obtained and the combined entity has legally begun operations as a single company (as confirmed by an official press release from at least two of Airbus, Leonardo, or Thales, or by an EU Commission decision document).

It resolves NO if, by that date, the deal has been:

• Formally abandoned or withdrawn by any of the three parties,

• Blocked by the European Commission or any national regulator with veto power, or

• Still pending closure (i.e., not yet operational as a merged entity).

Substantive divestitures or remedies imposed by regulators do not prevent YES resolution, provided the merger closes in some form involving all three original parties. If only two of the three parties proceed (e.g., one drops out), the market resolves NO.