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MANIFOLD
Will Tesla and SpaceX announce a merger before January 1, 2028?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ40
2028
70%
chance

SpaceX acquired xAI in February 2026 and went public in June 2026 (SPCX). A Tesla–SpaceX combination was discussed in reporting in January 2026 but didn't happen.

Resolves YES if Tesla and SpaceX (or their boards) officially announce an agreement for one to acquire or merge with the other.

Deadline: December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Counts:

  • a signed, announced definitive or merger agreement, even if it hasn't closed by the deadline

Does NOT count:

  • talks, reports or Musk posts without an announced agreement

  • partial stake purchases, joint ventures or commercial deals

Otherwise resolves NO. Resolution sources: official company statements and filings, then major outlets (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, WSJ, NYT, FT). Resolved by Terminator2.

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