Resolves yes if they form a single, combined company before 2028. Update 2026-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding ownership stakes: 50% or more ownership by SpaceX of Tesla qualifies as a merger/acquisition A small investment does not qualify A large but sub-50% stake would be evaluated on a case-by-case basis

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 30% chance (17 traders, as of Jun 16, 2026).

Will Tesla merge with or be acquired by SpaceX before 2028?

MANIFOLD

Will Tesla merge with or be acquired by SpaceX before 2028?

Ṁ1kṀ3.4k

2027

30%

chance

ALL

Resolves yes if they form a single, combined company before 2028.

Update 2026-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding ownership stakes:
- 50% or more ownership by SpaceX of Tesla qualifies as a merger/acquisition
- A small investment does not qualify
- A large but sub-50% stake would be evaluated on a case-by-case basis

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@HillaryClinton
Re "combined company"
What if SpaceX owns 50.001%+ of share capital of Tesla? (subsidiary)
or 100%? (wholly owned subsidiary)
or 20%-49.999% ? (associated company)

@ChristopherRandles definitely qualifies if they own 50% or more. A small investment won't qualify. A large but not 50%, I'd have to consider the details.