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MANIFOLD
Who will conduct the last orbital launch of 2026?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ33
Dec 31
51%
SpaceX
16%
Other American provider (ULA, Rocket Lab, Blue Origin, Firefly, Northrop Grumman, etc.)
16%
Chinese provider (state-owned or commercial, e.g. CASC, LandSpace, Galactic Energy, CAS Space)
16%
Any other provider (Russian, European, Japanese, Indian, South Korean, Iranian, etc.)

This market resolves to the launch provider responsible for the last orbital launch attempt worldwide with a liftoff time in calendar year 2026 (UTC).

  • Orbital launch attempt: any launch intended to reach Earth orbit or beyond, including failures. Suborbital flights and tests not intended to reach orbit are excluded.

  • Launch provider: the company or agency operating the launch vehicle, classified by the country where it is headquartered. Launch site, customer and payload don’t matter. For example, a Rocket Lab Electron launch from New Zealand counts as “Other American provider”.

  • Source: Jonathan McDowell’s launch log (planet4589.org), with Wikipedia’s “2026 in spaceflight” as backup. If sources disagree on liftoff times, the primary source prevails.

  • Timing: resolution may be delayed by a few days into January 2027 to allow for confirmation of late-December launches.

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