It's optimal to place limit orders of infinite value at 49 and 51, if you ignore the time-value of money (and I'm currently trying to find somewhere to put my cash). Betting immediately changes the odds in the opposite direction from what you want.

If you're in the market already, just put limit orders at 49/51 to exit it. If your limit orders are filled, you can't lose mana unless the market creator lies, lets bets happen after they've decided on a resolution & it hovers at 49.6 or something (in which case how much did you really lose?), or you sell early.

@DannyqnOht The optimal strategy is to snipe the market at the last second with massive amounts of mana, since it's self resolving.

@DannyqnOht Also, limit orders don't lock up your funds?

@Qoiuoiuoiu You can't snipe the market yourself. You have to convince a sucker to snipe the market in the opposite direction so that you can profit, and their loss will always exceed your gain, so you can't pay them to do this. It has to be a sucker.

Attempting to move the market, at any time, always hurts you (unless it's the half second after Sophia decided the resolution, but before she's hit the button - then you can possibly do it.)

Limit orders don't lock your funds, they just auto-cancel if you don't have the funds for them when they execute. Which, when you're making limit orders to sell, doesn't usually cost much it just means you have to have a balance for a while. (Which I think is silly, I should be able to sell at any time even with a balance of 0, but oh well. Kalshi does it this way too.)

@DannyqnOht hmm. Might have to be a sucker and rock the boat so there’s a clear resolution.

@SophiaLaird how does this resolve?

@Qoiuoiuoiu on February 3rd.