The following statements are true:
My birthday is before the end of February 2024, but will be after this market becomes public.
The closing date of this market will not be on my birthday.
I will not directly tell people when my birthday is.
Knowing that resolution and closing may be on different dates, I challenge Manifold to vibe check when my birthday is.
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| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
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@oh We don’t know if Sophia’s birthday already passed. Assuming this market became public as soon as it was created…
There’s a little less than a 50% chance her birthday is before the current close date. If so, there’s a 0% chance market resolves YES.
There’s a little more than a 50% chance her birthday is after the current close date, ie 1/22-2/28. If so, exactly half of those days could be her birthday (since the sum of the day and month is even). If there was an equal chance of resolving after any one of those days, then there’s a 50% chance this resolves YES.
50% x 0% + 50% x 50% = 25% chance of YES.
@oh BUT, there’s actually a slightly greater chance that her birthday is after the close date, which means that the odds should be a little higher than 25%.
@oh And this is all assuming that there is an equal chance of Sophia resolving any day after close. But she’s made no indication that this is the case.
@oh Since she holds shares in each market, I don’t trust any probabilistic reasoning about these markets.