Each choice on this market will resolve to the truth of its associated statement: FREE RESPONSE EDITION

676

Ṁ2.8k

Ṁ4.3k

resolved Aug 30

ALL

12%12%

This option will cash out if its probability is between 0 and 100% (inclusive).

12%8%

This will cash out as long as at least one other answer does not cash out

12%8%

This statement will cash out if 1+1=2

12%4%

This will cash out if any other options cash out.

12%3%

this will cash out if it is less than 85%

12%0.9%

This will cash out if no option on this market has more than 20% at close

12%0.2%

This will cash out if it takes more than 24 hours after market close for this question to resolve

12%0.1%

This will cash out if at least 20% of the other options are paradoxical or not self-resolving

0%0.1%

This statement will cash out if and only if it doesn't cash out.

0.2%Other

0.0%

This will cash out if no other options are true at resolve.

0.3%

This will cash out if it is the last traded option before market close

0.1%

Sky is sky

0.1%

This will cash out if less than half of the other answers cannot all be true at the same time

0.2%

This will cash out if this market has 50 or more unique traders at close

0.6%

This will cash out if winning options do not cash out equally, and will cash out to the highest other winning percent plus 1%

2.0%

This will cash out if all winning options cash out to an equal percentage

0.1%

If all tautological options are <= 7%, this cashes out

This will cash out if the market creator decides that statements must be phrased to have a potential to not cash out in order to cash out.

0.1%

If the Busy Beaver value BB(n), where n is the number of options, is independent of the axioms of ZFC set theory, this should cash out

This market is exactly what it says on the tin: an option will pay out if the associated statement is (to the best of my knowledge) true when this market resolves. I have made similar markets in the past, one of which is linked below.

I request that all user submitted "answers" remain self resolving, but otherwise the sky is the limit!

https://manifold.markets/SophiaLaird/each-choice-on-this-market-will-res-e677d588eab9?r=U29waGlhTGFpcmQ

Each choice on this market will resolve to the truth of its associated statement: THE SEQUEL

Resolved CHOOSE_MULTIPLE. Similar to this market, but it’s the sequel (https://manifold.markets/embed/SophiaLaird/each-choice-on-this-market-will-res)

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ545
2		Ṁ83
3		Ṁ66
4		Ṁ65
5		Ṁ63

25 Comments

34 Holders

314 Trades

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I have no idea how or why 1+1=2 is not a self resolving statement, care to explain?

Why didn't this cash out. Does 0% count?

Why didn't this cash out.

RIP sun

@DanMan314 It wasn't self resolving.

@ShadowyZephyr True, but neither was, "This statement will cash out if 1+1=2."

@JosephNoonan Oh wait what? Yeah why did that one cash out

I made some executive decisions while resolving.

10/10 😂

@SophiaLaird Seriously, only one of DeadRhino's options but not the 10 others??

I've created a version of this market that closes the trollish loopholes like submitting options about unproven mathematical statements or using the liar's paradox to make it impossible to resolve correctly. I am pretty sure I haven't left any game-breaking loopholes open, but even if I have, the description says I can modify the rules to close new ones that are discovered. So, if you want to bet on this market but aren't sure how it will resolve in light of the ambiguities and loopholes, mine should work better for you. As an added bonus, it uses the new, improved free response market type.

sold Ṁ1 of N/A

Since this market has basically been destroyed by all the abused loopholes in the resolution criteria, maybe we can help the creator figure out how to resolve it:

bought Ṁ1

@DanMan314 You've introduced yet another paradox, though it won't matter. If no other options caahed out, then the "no other option cash out" choice would cash out, but then that would mean that this one should cash out, which means "no other options" shouldn't cash out, etc.

This option is currently on track to cash out, but if I bet on it, it won't cash out.

This may resolve both true and false, since "this statement will cash out if 1+1=2" not cashing out can count as false associated statement so that the statement shouldn't cash out.

@Timothy There are Two statements labelled P and NP. If both have the same displayed percentage at the end this statement cashes out. If you are confused just do CONT f and search NP

@ShadowyZephyr What if I change my display name?

@Timothy misleading description

@JosephNoonan Is it ok if I write a comment with more details what P and NP mean in this case.

bought Ṁ4

@evergreenemily I hope this one is clear, but if not; this option cashes out if the top three options by probability at market close sum to 50% or higher. e.g. if the highest probability options at close have probabilities of 25%, 20%, and 10%, this option cashes out; if the probabilities are 15%, 10%, and 10%, this option does not cash out.

@JosephNoonan Not self-resolving, so it should be disqualified

bought Ṁ4 of N/A

@ShadowyZephyr Isn't it though?
There is no prediction or uncertainty, it's a "This market resolves to YES" with extra steps
Aren't those considered self-resolving?

@ShadowyZephyr Yeah, I realized that after I submitted it, so I submitted the current top option instead.

bought Ṁ1 of N/A

@BarrDetwix It’s about the phrasing of the question. One is based on absolute market State (self-resolving) and one is based on something else, which happens to be true (not). They are the same in practice, but that doesn’t matter.