This market is exactly what it says on the tin: an option will pay out if the associated statement is (to the best of my knowledge) true when this market resolves. I have made similar markets in the past, one of which is linked below.
I request that all user submitted "answers" remain self resolving, but otherwise the sky is the limit!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ545 | |
| 2 | Ṁ83 | |
| 3 | Ṁ66 | |
| 4 | Ṁ65 | |
| 5 | Ṁ63 |
People are also trading
Why didn't this cash out. Does 0% count?
Why didn't this cash out.
I've created a version of this market that closes the trollish loopholes like submitting options about unproven mathematical statements or using the liar's paradox to make it impossible to resolve correctly. I am pretty sure I haven't left any game-breaking loopholes open, but even if I have, the description says I can modify the rules to close new ones that are discovered. So, if you want to bet on this market but aren't sure how it will resolve in light of the ambiguities and loopholes, mine should work better for you. As an added bonus, it uses the new, improved free response market type.
Since this market has basically been destroyed by all the abused loopholes in the resolution criteria, maybe we can help the creator figure out how to resolve it:
@DanMan314 You've introduced yet another paradox, though it won't matter. If no other options caahed out, then the "no other option cash out" choice would cash out, but then that would mean that this one should cash out, which means "no other options" shouldn't cash out, etc.
This may resolve both true and false, since "this statement will cash out if 1+1=2" not cashing out can count as false associated statement so that the statement shouldn't cash out.
@Timothy There are Two statements labelled P and NP. If both have the same displayed percentage at the end this statement cashes out. If you are confused just do CONT f and search NP
@evergreenemily I hope this one is clear, but if not; this option cashes out if the top three options by probability at market close sum to 50% or higher. e.g. if the highest probability options at close have probabilities of 25%, 20%, and 10%, this option cashes out; if the probabilities are 15%, 10%, and 10%, this option does not cash out.
@ShadowyZephyr Isn't it though?
There is no prediction or uncertainty, it's a "This market resolves to YES" with extra steps
Aren't those considered self-resolving?
@ShadowyZephyr Yeah, I realized that after I submitted it, so I submitted the current top option instead.
@BarrDetwix It’s about the phrasing of the question. One is based on absolute market State (self-resolving) and one is based on something else, which happens to be true (not). They are the same in practice, but that doesn’t matter.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?