How will my season 21 in Platinum go?
5
100Ṁ722
resolved Feb 2
100%25%
Stay in Platinum
72%
Promote to diamond
1.3%
Demote to gold
1.4%Other

  • Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:

    • Promote to diamond if ranked in the top 5 by season end.

    • Do not promote if ranked below top 5.

  • Update 2025-26-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Promote to Platinum if ranked in the top 5 by season end.

    • Do not promote if ranked below top 5.

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Finally reached 5th-6th in the final day. It was going to be a coinflip, so participated in daily coinflip to tip the scales. It didn't work, I came 6th

bought Ṁ50 NO

I have climbed to 3rd, which is making promotion significantly more likely. Still have a big week of closing questions upcoming so I'll lose or gain a lot from that

sold Ṁ78 NO

@Soni Others are finally climbing hard, bringing me to 5th. 4th place effectively has double my mana gained so I'm not getting there.

A bunch of my markets have in fact closed, so I think it'll just be 5th place or bust

@Soni Still in 5th place, which means promotion to Platinum.

I mostly plan to deactivate or stop using Manifold soon, so divested from a lot of long-term markets. Only leaving markets I care about or short term arbitrages, so about 60 markets still with my trades.

I put like 20% odds my account is deactivated within the next week.

@Soni Leading by 200 points over 6th place. I don't think I'm deactivating this account in the next 48 hours.

There's probably no significant markets that are closing in the next couple days for me. So it's probably based entirely on 6th-10th place than any trades I close

sold Ṁ11 NO

Down to 6th in the standings, and I think I'll be back and forth for top 5 (promotion to diamond) at this rate. None of the medium bets are likely to go right a lot, so odds of not promoting are higher

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