@Soli does this need to happen before market close? Like it might be worthwhile to add a "by Date" somewhere so it doesn't stay open forever otherwise

depends on how most participants understood the market, i was thinking end date + ~2 months max but maybe i should have clarified that from the start

@traders what do you think?

Please no trading until we reach a conclusion. Any trades done between now and then are under your responsibility.

@Soli I wouldn't mind waiting for the OpenAI restructuring to happen.

@Soli Neither the title nor the description mention any date. I clearly interpreted this market as trying to find out whether Altman will recieve equity as rumored in the restructuring, and not whether the restructuring will be finalized by any date. This should not resolve before the restructuring.

@Primer makes sense but what if the restructuring doesn’t happen before 2-3 years? would it still make sense to wait all of this time?

@Soli I think so. But what if it becomes improbable that the restructuring will happen at all (OpenAI has often surprised everyone in the past)? Maybe create a new (conditional?) market or a multiple-response ("for-profit by 2025 + Altman equity >3%", ""for-profit by 2025 + Altman equity <3%", etc.)?

@Primer I think a clear deadline makes sense for two key reasons:

1. If Sam doesn't receive equity by the deadline and the restructuring doesn't happen, then the answer is simply "No" - he didn't receive the equity. That's a clean resolution.

2. We're trying to predict the outcome of the current restructuring that's being reported in the news, not some future event. If it happens way later, that would be a separate event entirely.

End of 2025 seems fair - it gives enough time for complex corporate negotiations while staying connected to current events but I am also open to resolving N/A if most participants do not agree with my proposal.

@Soli end of 2025 seems like a fair compromise

@Soli Regarding 2: If the restructuring towards a for-profit happens, but it takes them 3 years, I don't see how this would be a "seperate event entirely". One could even argue we should judge any restructuring which results in the creation of a for-profit as "the thing currently in the news", as we don't have enough insight to be able to judge whether some restructioning plan is how similar to the unknown-to-us current plan.

Regarding 1: The cleanest would be N/A and create a new question. This discussion proves that there was enough ambiguity to justify N/A.

@mods what do you think is the best course of action here?

@Soli Totally within your control as the market creator to do what you think seems correct. The guidelines basically give you the latitude to handle this however you wish.

What's the point of a non profit if you can just turn it into a for profit?

@GeorgeBz8r3 the whole thing is a bit weird, i wonder how many people worked at OpenAI only because it was non-profit and how those people are feeling today