The market resolves as “Yes” if OpenAI makes an announcement in December similar to the ones listed below.

• release of a GPT-4.5

• progress update on GPT-5

• release of a new consumer device

• release of a serious open-source model

• plans to work on something new such as AI chips

If the announcement just confirms things they already shared it won’t count e.g. rollout of the GPT-Store. The announcement has to be product-related.