Resolution Criteria
The market resolves positively if Karpathy makes a clear statement of support in a tweet before end of the month. The statement must be unambiguous in its support.
Background
Sam was fired. Greg resigned. Many have spoken in support such as Brian. I wonder what Karpathy thinks. The reason I care is because I trust Karpathy more than Sam or Greg. I also believe that all four of them were actually vital to the creation of OpenAI.
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Resolving this Market
I created this question on the 18th of November while wondering what Karpathy thinks of the OpenAI situation. My assumption was that due to the nature of his work, Karpathy might be working closely with Ilya at OpenAI and will therefore have a better understanding of his view than most (assuming Ilya played a role in the attempt to oust Sam out of OpenAI). I tweeted the following on the 19th:
Then someone replied to me with the following:
I checked Karpathy's likes tab and found the following tweets:
Then Karpathy responded to my tweet saying:
I believe this question should resolve as 'Yes'. Karpathy's statement, "I like and respect Sam," is a clear support of Sam. Additionally, his negative comments about the board reinforce this support. This statement alone suffices for a positive resolution. Moreover, considering his other actions, like his likes and retweets, further solidifies this viewpoint. Also, I read the comments and I want to remind everyone that the question says "Will Karpathy publicly express support for Sam and/or Greg on Twitter?". Karpathy clearly expressed support for Sam Twitter.
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I will resolve this market by end of the month regardless of what happens before that. You should not interpret the contiuation of the market as Yes or No. I won’t comment further since at the end this will be somewhat subjective and each one of us would probably see it differently but I will share my detailed reasoning and read all comments.
@Soli imo this should just be resolved n/a at this point, markets should resolve when the thing happens
@Asher That's not a requirement, just a norm, and it's reasonable for a creator to not want the discounting bias that that policy introduces.
@IsaacKing Yea, fair, good point. I guess what I think isn't great is that the decision not to resolve it earlier seems to bias the result, as the creator was planning to resolve it when Karpathy tweeted if the tweet was clearly supportive. Now we know that the creator at least doesn't really know how to resolve it and it sorta feel like we're waiting on a 50-50. I guess this isn't really a problem, idk
@JosephBarnes These were both from a while ago (the first one as a reply to the market creator). I'm guessing the market creator doesn't think they count if the market hasn't already been resolved, since the first was a reply rather than a top-level tweet, and the second is a retweet?
But as someone who just switched to YES and is now somewhat regretting it, I would petition to count the first statement, because as per the title, it's definitely "expressing support for Sam on Twitter." If you wouldn't count a reply as a tweet and that's why the market isn't resolved, consider that a tweet is technically an X now anyway. Also "retweet" has "tweet" in the name, implying that it is (was) a tweet
@IsaacKing Remember that the OpenAI board wrote "We are grateful for Sam’s many contributions to the founding and growth of OpenAI." in their announcement kicking his butt out. So words with positive sentiment are insufficient.
"support" should mean "Disagreement with the board's decision". The words "board [...] drastic actions" is closer to support than the positive sentiment words, but still seems ambiguous.
@Mira Hm, fair point. But I would say that an individual writing positive sentiment words carries more weight than someone representing a company, like the OpenAI board or Satya Nadella. I guess the resolution criteria are more ambiguous than I realized, I was interpreting "support Sam" as "say something positive about Sam" rather than "also say something negative about the board"
@IsaacKing "I like and respect X" is pretty far away from unambiguous support. You can very well respect your opponents. And just because you like someone doesn't mean you support them. You can interpret this as a statement that's a statement intended to be positive about Sam, but if he wanted to express 'unambiguous support' he'd have chosen different words.
My model of him is that he pretty strongly supports sama and gbm and their side of the drama but since the drama is likely slowing down/coming to a temporary close there won’t be a need to make a tweet showing explicit support (til the end of the month anyway) but not sure. Like maybe he will tweet in a week ‘wow that was really a silly bit of drama, glad the altman side handled it well’; would that resolve YES? Still seems unlikely to happen
@Asher Because of the retweet of the Vinod Kholsa article? I don't think retweeting an article implies endorsement of a passing sentence about Sam being focused on "making the world a better place"
@CalebBiddulph he tweeted something at the start of this, which is now deleted, starting his tweet with "I love and respect sam." Seems pretty clearly like expressing support to me; the market probably should've resolved then. I don't know why they are waiting, im kinda confused
@firstuserhere So basically unless "I like and respect" counts as expressing support, he won't. He basically is saying he can't judge the matter because no one has given any real explanation.
@DavidBolin I am not sure I agree with your interpretation. Not saying that I disagree. What does everyone else think?
@Soli The second sentence expresses support in a general sense.
The third sentence ambiguously, tentatively, indirectly expresses support in the context of Altman vs the board.
@Congratulations hmm not sure I agree. The resolution criteria was never meant to compare with others. I did not say “Will Karpathy post the most supportive statement for Sam”
@Soli Did you intend this to be a question of whether Karpathy would support Altman as a person, or whether he would support him in such a way as to suggest that he should not have been removed from his role as CEO? I would say the former is unambiguous yes and the latter is ambiguous yes.
@Soli However I do think the comparison with the example tweet is relevant. Including, in that tweet, the use of the word “support”.
Andrej’s tweet isn’t supportive at all, but a statement of personal liking of a person. You can like someone without being supportive.
IMHO, resolving to yes should require the word “support” or a stronger synonym than “like and respect”. From the description: “The statement must be unambiguous in its support.”
@Soli yea, this seems pretty clearly supportive. The market didn’t specify a strong take with details about the situation, just general support
I won’t comment any further. I will keep this question running till end of month. I feel whatever I decide at this point will lead to bad reviews but I don’t care. Such question as somewhat subjective in nature and I hope all participants see this. I will provide clear justification when I close the question.