Will Apple's AI Assistant (Siri) stop being a joke before the second half of 2024?
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Jun 30
6%
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A less catchy title would have been "Will Apple integrate a conversational GPT-3+ level LLM in their phone assistant before the second half of 2024?" but the one above sounds nicer and will get more traders.

I was reading the information and saw that Google plans a new 'Pixie AI assistant for Pixel phones based on the Gemini AI model. This made me wonder if this will encourage Apple to finally do something.

I don't expect Siri to write code for me but expect it to operate at least a ChatGPT 3 level in holding a conversation.

I wrote a thread about this on Twitter a while ago with some stuff that I would love but don't expect Apple to do anytime soon:

Get Ṁ600 play money
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@probajoelistic I personally appreciate That Guy™️ especially when they ask the right questions so early 😉.

I think anyone with an Apple developer account has access to these beta releases. If this is indeed the case then I think a developer beta release would also count.

bought Ṁ500 YES

@Soli Resolves YES, right?

It obviously can't do everything, but it was never going to be able to do everything. It can hold conversations at a gpt3+ level and is way more useful and intelligent.

it also has access to gpt4o directly, which I would count as "part of siri" though I'm not sure if you count it that way.

@Bayesian is the beta out already?

sold Ṁ1,897 YES

@Soli No, I just trade really badly

@Bayesian hahahaha ur profit graph says otherwise ;)

Do you have a iPhone 15 Pro?

@Predictor should not be a factor in resolving the market - i removed the part saying will resolve based on personal experience from the description

The way this is phrased - "and will resolve this question based on my personal experience interacting with the improved assistant" - makes me think the improved assistant would have to enter at least the beta branch before July. Based on other questions on similar topics, this seems increasingly unlikely? Or am I misinterpreting the resolution criteria?

@Akilu

I think anyone with an Apple developer account has access to these beta releases. If this is indeed the case then I think a developer beta release would also count.

What would happen if Apple's AI assistant stops being a joke, but its not siri

@firstuserhere i.e. maybe shit siri still exists with another better assistant present as well

@firstuserhere if something replaces siri then it counts

It is happening 👀

Every market has to have That Guy™️, so it might as well be me.. Would you mind clarifying if a developer beta release just before July would count and clarifying how it will be compared to GPT-3?

@probajoelistic I personally appreciate That Guy™️ especially when they ask the right questions so early 😉.

I think anyone with an Apple developer account has access to these beta releases. If this is indeed the case then I think a developer beta release would also count.

I personally think there is a ~70% chance this would happen

@Soli and ~95% chance by end of 2024

@Soli I think this is priced about right at 30% for 1H 2024, but I also give it >90% for end 2024.

Apple has always worried more about getting it right than being first to market. They'll watch Google's messy release, maybe Amazon and others, learn from that, and then release the product they've surely been cooking. Probably around September with some exclusivity to new hardware.

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