Will Apple's AI Assistant (Siri) stop being a joke before the second half of 2024?
34
178
650
Jun 30
23%
chance

A less catchy title would have been "Will Apple integrate a conversational GPT-3+ level LLM in their phone assistant before the second half of 2024?" but the one above sounds nicer and will get more traders.

I was reading the information and saw that Google plans a new 'Pixie AI assistant for Pixel phones based on the Gemini AI model. This made me wonder if this will encourage Apple to finally do something.

I mostly own Apple products and will resolve this question based on my personal experience interacting with the improved assistant while taking the community sentiment on Twitter and Manifold into account. I don't expect Siri to write code for me but expect it to operate at least a ChatGPT 3 level in holding a conversation.

I wrote a thread about this on Twitter a while ago with some stuff that I would love but don't expect Apple to do anytime soon:

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:

What would happen if Apple's AI assistant stops being a joke, but its not siri

@firstuserhere i.e. maybe shit siri still exists with another better assistant present as well

It is happening 👀

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Every market has to have That Guy™️, so it might as well be me.. Would you mind clarifying if a developer beta release just before July would count and clarifying how it will be compared to GPT-3?

@probajoelistic I personally appreciate That Guy™️ especially when they ask the right questions so early 😉.

I think anyone with an Apple developer account has access to these beta releases. If this is indeed the case then I think a developer beta release would also count.

I personally think there is a ~70% chance this would happen

@Soli and ~95% chance by end of 2024

@Soli I think this is priced about right at 30% for 1H 2024, but I also give it >90% for end 2024.

Apple has always worried more about getting it right than being first to market. They'll watch Google's messy release, maybe Amazon and others, learn from that, and then release the product they've surely been cooking. Probably around September with some exclusivity to new hardware.

More related questions