What will be true of LLAMA 3? (LMSYS Rank, Context Window, Launch Date, Parameters) [1000Ṁ]
54
514
2.9k
Jun 30
91%
all (announced/confirmed) models will be launched by August 24
81%
reach top 3 on LMSYS
27%
context window >= 250k tokens
15%
context window >= 500k tokens
11%
~3B parameters version
9%
reach #1 on LMSYS
8%
1B parameters version
Resolved
YES
some models will launch in April 24

LMSYS Ranks: We will use the rank determined by ChatBot Arena, which means that two companies can tie rank #1

Context Window: It suffices if any of the announced models fulfill this criterion

Launch in x: A launch is considered complete if the model makes its way to the internet and anyone with sufficient effort can get their hands on it.

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bought Ṁ30 ~3B parameters version NO

LLAMA 3 Is out, no 3B version

@SarM they still might release one

@Soli So the market can never resolve no?

@Hazel The market resolves no if by end of the year the model is not released

What will be considered a 3 billion version? 2.8B? 3.7B?

@Sss19971997 Good question, maybe anything between 2.5 and 4.0?

some models will launch in April 24

I assume this refers to the "smaller versions" which are expected soon? https://analyticsindiamag.com/meta-set-to-release-two-small-versions-of-llama-3-next-week/

bought Ṁ20 all (announced/confi... YES

@HarrisonNathan i updated the text to say "some models will launch in April" and added another option for "all models" - thank you for pointing this out

bought Ṁ30 reach #1 on LMSYS NO

Can you add the option of something like: (if the results are reported) gets 97% or more on TruthfulQA

@firstuserhere sure - i am not super knowledgable about this stuff, what do you suggest the exact wording be for this one?

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