Will Twitter have a lower percentage of bot users at the end of 2023?
57
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resolved Mar 7
Resolved
NO

This is intended to be part of a series of markets evaluating how Twitter is doing a bit over a year after ownership by Elon Musk.

At the end of 2023 if Twitter has a smaller percentage of monetizeable user accounts as bots than it did in 2022 this market will resolve YES.

"Fewer than 5% of monetizable user accounts on Twitter are controlled by bots, according to digital intelligence provider Similarweb."

Post of related markets:
https://manifold.markets/post/evaluating-twitter-after-a-year-of

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Resolved NO. No positive evidence for YES came forward, and lots of soft evidence for NO did come forward.

For example from the Super Bowl:
> "I've never seen anything even remotely close to 50 percent, not to mention 76 percent," CHEQ founder and CEO Guy Tytunovich told Mashable regarding X's fake traffic data. "I'm amazed…I've never, ever, ever, ever seen anything even remotely close."

From personal experience:
Bots seem more common. Additionally my old original Twitter account that got taken over by a bot in college is still a bot account despite myself and others reporting it multiple times. Clearly old bot accounts are not actually getting dealt with.

I think we can resolve this NO. Any objections?

shouldnt this be resolved?

bought Ṁ100 NO

Bet down a little since I think no word from Twitter itself is soft evidence of it not getting better.

bought Ṁ200 NO

Extending close date until we can get a proper source/headline. Traders encouraged to provide a link.


I cannot seem to find a current analysis. One thing that we could do is reopen the market and it will close when information is revealed.

Thoughts?

Currently unclear, looking for headlines or data.

predicted YES
bought Ṁ150 of YES

Turns out vertically landing rockets /IS/ in fact harder than applying 1990s-era spam filtering (instead of faking your user numbers by allowing it)

bought Ṁ10 of NO

I think it will be hard to know this, but I think musk doesn't actually care about this, but also i might be full of garbage

bought Ṁ20 of YES

Also, I guess advertisers care about what percentage of mDAU are bots, but users care about what percentage of tweets they are seeing are bots. I'm personally much more interested in the latter, but I doubt there is data on it.

I think Musk doesn't actually have any particular advantage at lowering the number of bots compared to what Twitter was already doing, but he'll make it a bigger focus because he made it such a thing.

However, this might not be measurable, because as a private company he doesn't have to keep reporting metrics, and he may choose to report different metrics.