Will Manifold have 220 active daily users by the time this market closes?

100Ṁ2248

resolved Aug 4

Resolved

ALL

Resolves YES if at any point Manifold hits this number, otherwise resolves NO at close.

I will use the analytics located here: https://manifold.markets/stats

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#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ99
2		Ṁ41
3		Ṁ16
4		Ṁ2
5		Ṁ2

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Will Manifold have more than 1445 active traders on any day in 2025?

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Sadly resolved NO. I have made a followup market for the next week of growth: https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/will-manifold-have-250-active-daily

https://manifold.markets/BTE/how-many-referral-bonuses-will-i-ge

Look at the number of signups there were yesterday! I just signed up due to several people tweeting their markets, and I plan on coming back pretty frequently now; I expect there'll be a decent number of others like me.

I'm bullish on our growth in general over the next few months. But all of the specific upcoming growth factors won't be out or have had enough time to increase our DAU by that much before Aug 5th. I think something unexpected would have to happen for us to hit that number of users.

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Will Manifold have more than 1445 active traders on any day in 2025?

14% chance

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