At the end of 2023 will Twitter be profitable?
resolved Jan 2

This is intended to be part of a series of markets evaluating how Twitter is doing a bit over a year after ownership by Elon Musk.

At the end of 2023 if Twitter is profitable this market resolves YES.

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Resolving NO.

All available evidence indicates they are not profitable.

Elon famously recently complained that Twitter is currently on the path to death unless Advertisers change what they have been doing.

Twitter now private. How will you know to resolve?

bought Ṁ95 of NO
bought Ṁ48 of YES

He's still saying they're cash flow negative

predicted NO

'Musk discussed the financial toll advertising boycotts have had on his business, saying it’s been a “huge struggle for Twitter to break even.”

“We’re hoping to break even, but we’re not there yet,” he said.'

predicted YES
predicted NO

@Blomfilter They were cash flow positive before Elon took over so this is hardly an accomplishment, and it is still a long ways from being profitable, if it ever is again. Almost all of that cash accumulating is going to the first interest payments on the debt later this year.

bought Ṁ101 of NO

How does the market resolves if Twitter goes bankrupt or is in receivership by EOY?

predicted YES

A senior Twitter manager told employees that the company’s daily revenue on Tuesday was 40% lower than the same day a year ago, ... more than 500 of Twitter’s top advertisers have paused spending on Twitter since Elon Musk took over in October.

They've cut some costs (employees, office rent), but they've also added some huge costs (interest on loans) and lost a lot of revenue, and I don't see a way that they could really bring that revenue back in the next year. Twitter Blue definitely isn't going to do it.

predicted NO

@Gabrielle Plus, add on the inevitable costs from the lawsuits they’re facing over not paying stuff (e.g. their rent,) and I do not see how Twitter will be profitable.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@nottelling2ccc Are these lawsuits in the room with us right now?

bought Ṁ0 of NO
predicted NO

@Shai Actually, I think your comment might be correct in spirit. Though several lawsuits have been filed against Twitter, lawsuits tend to move very slowly and take a few years to resolve on average (I'm no lawyer, but some basic research seems to point to that being the case.) Although these suits will cause trouble in the long term, it seems like these suits may not affect their 2023 profitability much (Though I still think the lost revenue and loans could prevent Twitter from making a profit this year.)

predicted NO

Is Twitter even required to report their financial info anymore? If so, what if they refuse to disclose that info? Does a credible report from a news outlet count? (e.g. “a credible source told NYT that Twitter wasn’t profitable in Q4 2023”.)

@nottelling2ccc If we have to make do with that, then yes that would suffice.

Does this question mean like, if 2023 Q4 net income is positive?

@jack Yup!

bought Ṁ5 of NO
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bought Ṁ10 of NO
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bought Ṁ10 of NO
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