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I have been riding the Carlson train from the beginning and now it looks really really good.

Pragg resigns first game, where he had the white pieces. Now he has to win on demand with the black pieces.

@SophusCorry yeah I'm all in at this point. Magnus has lost like 7 classical games as white in the last 10 years or something ridiculous like that. At the current 79% it's ridiculously undervalued, even given it's rapid time control and that Magnus might be on his way down.

@Mad yes it's probably more like 85-90% imo. Never bet against Magnus.

I suppose there was no reason for me to create https://manifold.markets/SophusCorry/will-praggnanandhaa-beat-magnus-car?r=U29waHVzQ29ycnk now that I think about it

Will Praggnanandhaa beat Magnus carlsen and win the finals of the The Chess World Cup 2023

27% chance. If he wins the tournament this resolves YES, otherwise NO

I had bet YES, but after looking at his play in the latest match (against Keymer, which he won but with several mistakes, including drawing a winning endgame), I sold my YES shares and am now betting NO

Just arbing the other FIDE market

How does this resolve if he doesn’t compete?

@long he is currently playing in this event

@long If he doesn’t compete, he doesn’t win.